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Asian Metals Market Update: October-3-2016

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 3 October 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

The UK has said that it will complete the formalities to exit from the European Union by the end of March 2017. The UK economy is growing despite the EU exit fears. The UK will benefit much more after the EU exit as it can follow independent trade policies. The Cable has been knocked down against the major currencies. I believe that the cable will be the star performer this quarter and next year. Buying far dated call options seems more or less risk free. However in the short term cable (against the US dollar) can fall to 1.2500 and below if it trades below 1.2850 next week. We just might see a direct correlation between the cable and gold till next year.


This is a big week for gold and silver. US employment numbers will tell us whether chances of an US interest rate hike beyond December are there or not. Indian demand and Chinese demand trends will also affect bullion. Hindus have an auspicious week. Chinese have a state holiday this week.


Technically gold needs to trade over $1307 and silver needs to trade over $1870 to prevent further losses and/or have hopes to rise. Trade carefully. Crude oil is at an infection point and either breaks $50 this week or gets busted.


COMEX SILVER DECEMBER 2016 – current price $1928.80

Bullish over $1907 with $$1940-1966 and $1989 as price target

Bearish below $1888 with $1871 and $1828 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1888-$1907

  • Silver needs to $trade over 1888 to rise to $1966 and $2007
  • Trade very carefully between $1878-$1910 zone. However there will be buyers only if silver shows signs of a sustained rise over $1940.
  • Technically silver is bearish.
  • Jobbers watch $1907 and $1940 all the time.

MCX SILVER DECEMBER 2016 – previous day close Rs.45726

Overall trend is bearish. Silver needs to trade over 44899 today to rise to 46062 and 46749. There will be sellers only if silver trades below 44899 either in the UK session or the US session to 44703 and 44434. We prefer to buy silver only if it trades over 46062 today with a stop loss below 45832 and a price target of 46749.

(prices in Indian rupees above)

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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UK session starts around 2:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 7pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)




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