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Asian Metals Market Update: October-5-2016

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Wednesday, 5 October 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

Every day there will not be crashes in gold and silver. There will be pullback rallies. I will still prefer to use sharp dips today to invest in gold and silver for the short term. I am hoping that prices will recover after the US September private ADP numbers. Migrant problem in Europe and the UK exit from the EU backlash has resulted in the American dollar getting the safe haven status and knock down in gold and silver. Technical breakdown below key moving averages, buy stop losses getting triggered and option market covering all added to yesterday’s fall.


Key moving averages

Comex Gold: 200 day moving average $1285.90, 200 week moving average $1279.70, 100 month moving average $1289.

Comex Silver: 200 day moving average $1769, 100 day moving average $1928, 100 week moving average at $1633.


The best way to trade is to use technical instead of panicking. Gold fell below $1307 and we asked our clients to go short. Today we prefer to use sharp dips (if any) before the release of US September private ADP jobs number to go long in gold and silver with a stop loss below $1245 and $1633.


However if gold and silver continues to fall in the US session, then physical buyers will stay away. Physical silver which was trading at a discount to MCX futures till yesterday morning moved into premium yesterday night. I expect the premiums to rise further in India. Indian jewelers will be happy for the fall as demand will start to pick up.


A daily close below $1245 today and Friday will be very bearish for gold in the short term. A daily close below $1740 today and Friday for silver will be very bearish in the short term.


COMEX SILVER DECEMBER 2016 – current price $1796.20

Bullish over $1810 with $1847-$1888 and $1940 as price target

Bearish below $1777 with $1742 and $1678 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1777-$1810

  • Silver needs to trade over $1740 till Friday to rise to $1940 and $2056. Big crash to $1632 and $1544 if silver trades below $1740.
  • Trend is bearish to oversold. There will be buyers only if silver manages to trade over $1820 either in the UK session or the US session
  • Jobbers watch $1796 and $1820 all the time.

MCX GOLD DECEMBER 2016 – previous day close Rs.30047

The hundred percent retracement has been completed at 30020. Gold needs to trade over 30020 today to rise to 30432 and 30795. There is a mild technical congestion between 29872-30020. Another big crash to 29683 and 29029 only if gold trades below 29872. Trade very carefully between 29872-30020 zone. Jobbers buy gold only if it trades over 30200 stop loss 30080 for 30420-30600.

(prices in Indian Rupees above)

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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UK session starts around 2:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 7pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)




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