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Asian Metals Market Update: November-10-2016

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Thursday, 10 November 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

The elected US President is against the zero interest rates policy which the Federal Reserve is following. Depending on how many new jobs start getting created, the Federal Reserve could start a quicker pace of interest rate hike than currently discounted. However a certain section of the market now believes that an interest rate hike in December will be delayed and will be left to Trump’s team to take the call. Gold can fall first and then rise. Gold could also consolidate in wider $1166-$1321-$1447 range till January of next year.


A lot traders were scared of yesterday’s volatility and did not trade. The best way to trade is to have key technical support and resistances. For example yesterday morning when gold started rising on chances of Trump’s win, I gave a long call as long as key resistance of $1307 was breached. Closed the position at $1323. Thereafter when gold started falling from the day’s high of $1338, I gave a short call in gold as soon as it neared $1323 (earlier resistance now becomes the support) and close the position at $1307. In the US session tomorrow, once again a new short call in gold was advised as soon as gold breached the support at $1297 and position was closed at $1285. All I am trying to say is that one needs to have key technical supports and resistances in hand. Days like yesterday are very rare and need to be capitalized. But without proper preparation everything can go haywire.


Donald Trump will spend on infrastructure. He sees current American infrastructure inadequate of meeting future needs. His focus is also on reviving the American manufacturing industry. Steel, Copper and other industrial metals should be the beneficiary in the long term. Energies and Energy companies have always risen under the republican rule. Silver will get the benefit of rise in industrial metals. Under valuation is the right word for silver right now.


Right wing political groups in Europe and all over the world will now get motivated to work even harder to get a stronger voter mandate. Europe has a lot of elections next year. The current European leaders have just echoed Obama. Now they will take evasive measures to prevent power eviction. Gold and other safe havens will get benefit in the transition period between now and election periods in key European nations.


Trump is a billionaire businessman. He knows the needs to American industry top to down. He can meet the needs of American industry. Foreign policy changes are something which the world will be closely watching. Any nation’s foreign policy cannot be changed overnight. The world will be closely watching Trump’s foreign policy moves.


COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2016 – current price $1287.50

Bullish over $1290.20 with $1306.40 and $1318.70 as price target

Bearish below $1282.10 with $1274.60 and $1261.90 as price target.

Neutral Zone between: $1282.20-$1290.20

  • Gold needs to trade over $1282 to rise to $1307 and $1323
  • There will be another wave of sell off only if gold trades below $1282.
  • Remain on the sidelines.
  • Jobbers watch $1290 all the time.

MCX GOLD DECEMBER 2016 – previous day close Rs.29877

Gold needs to trade over 29628 till tomorrow to rise to 30284 and 30922. There will be a big crash if gold trades below 29628 or in case gold does not break 30284 today. I prefer to buy gold only if gold trades over 30056 stop loss 29947 for 30284 and 30419. (A daily close below 29740 today and tomorrow will be technically bearish for next week).

(prices in Indian Rupees above).

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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