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Asian Metals Market Update: December-7-2016

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Wednesday, 7 December 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

This year I have been totally wrong in long term projections for gold and silver. I expected gold to top $1520 which failed as India adopted demonetization. I expected Indian silver prices to rise to Rs.53000 per kilogram on Diwali day. Another big flop projection. Clients made money by investing in copper, zinc, lead and natural gas. Short term trades in crude oil were accurate over eighty percent of times. What I learned is when fundamentals turn weak for any metal or energy, despite bullish momentum and bullish technical, the rising trend will reverse sooner than later.


I call Nickel and Gbp/usd as kingmaker/widowmaker as the case may be. One bad trade in nickel or gbpusd and you are busted for life and in some cases even causes mental instability. On the day when gbpusd got busted all long position holders suffered capital losses. To me the copper, usdjpy and  jpyinr were the safest for intraday trades as well as medium term trades. (Please note I do not recommend  long term investment for non delieverable trades).


I still believe that Indian government will stop people from investing in physical gold. But the government says gold not silver or platinum. One can invest in silver on any twenty percent crash (if any) for next year. I love platinum jewelery. The government so far has decided not to impose any restrictions to buy platinum jewelery. It’s time the various jewelers association all over India starts promoting platinum jewelery as an alternate to gold. Let the government get obsessed with gold. Jewelers have to adapt and survive. Indians despite all controls since Independence have managed to rise and shine against all odds. I am sure jewelers will adapt and give a befitting reply NDA government.


In short a cashless society implies that government will tax us on the higher of income or expenditure. The government will have each and every detail of how you spend and your annual expenditure. Income will also be known. If due to some reason one takes a loan and spends more, then tax will be based on your expenditure and not your income. Spending pattern of the people will be known to government and they in the long term will influence your spending pattern.


COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2017 – current price $1171.40

Bullish over $1167.20 with $1177.90 and $1186.30 as price target

Bearish below $1158.10 with $1149.90 and $1142.80 as price target.

Neutral Zone between: $1158.10-$1167.20

  • Gold either breaks and trades over $1186 today or else it will fall to $1153 and $1142
  • Remain on the sidelines today.

MCX GOLD FEBRUARY – prices in Indian rupees below

Failure to break and trade over 28300 by 15th December will result in a fall to 27100 and 26300 first. Technically gold is bearish. Key support is at 27540. Gold needs to trade over 27540 to prevent another sell off. Remain on the sidelines today.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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