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Asian Metals Market Update: Jan-5-2017



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Thursday, 5 January 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

Weakness in the US dollar after the FOMC minutes resulted in gains for metals and energies. There is optimism that Trump will create new jobs with higher growth rates. If there is any indication of fading of Trump optimism then the US dollar will nosedive, emerging market stocks, metals and energies will zoom.

 

Gold imports to Turkey jumped to 36.7 tons in December recording a 688 percent after its president Erdogan called for its citizens to convert their foreign exchange into Turkish Lira or gold. The Chinese are buying a lot of gold. There is higher demand for gold all over the Eurozone over fears of Islamic terrorism. Physical gold demand is on the rise. Investment demand in ETFs keeps on fluctuating. Physical gold demand is a long term indicator of gold prices. In the short term and medium term ETF inflows/outflows and other news affect prices.

 

In India key state elections have been announced. The NDA government is trying to impact voter sentiment by keeping the Union budget on time. All the judicial agencies whether it is the election commission or the Supreme Court have been supportive of the NDA government. The NDA government will give the budget on the dates it wishes. Goa and Uttarakhand are the key states for the BJP. Congress has the best chance to come to power in Punjab. I do not foresee a BJP in power in Uttar Pradesh as ghost of demonetization will affect voters. The Indian rupee so far has been trading in 66-69 range against the US dollar. This range will be broken soon. Domestic factors suggest further weakness. Only global factors can result in gains for the rupee.

 

The next three days till Monday is very crucial for all metals and energies. If they rise then I expect a ten percent rise over the coming weeks. If they fall, then could move in to a medium term bearish zone.

 

COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2017 – current price $1172.35

Bullish over $1157.80 with $1183.90 and $1201.20 as price target

Bearish below $1148.30 with $1141.20 and $1134.60 as price target.

Neutral Zone between: $1148.30-$1157.80

  • Immediate resistance is at $1178.90. A break of $1178.90 will trigger another wave of rise to $1191.70 and $1201.70.
  • Initial support is at 1159.20. There will be sell off if gold trades below $1159.20 in the US session.
  • A daily close over $1167 will be bullish for tomorrow.

MCX CRUDE OIL JANUARY 2017 – previous day close Rs.3621

There is a technical congestion between 3555-3588-3621. Crude oil needs to trade over this zone to rise to 3712 and 3774. Today one needs to remain on the sidelines as crude oil rise can move 125-150 anytime. Jobbers watch 3617 all the time.

(prices in Indian Rupees above)

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

Follow us on Twitter @insigniaconsul1

UK session starts around 2:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 7pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

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