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Asian Metals Market Update: Jan-9-2017

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 9 January 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

Traders are of the perception that US jobs will recover under Trump which will result in interest rate rises. This is the reason why gold and silver did not rise after the jobs number. It should be a technical trade this week with the direction of the US dollar as key. Energy price movement will depend on weather conditions in the USA and Europe.


China could try and regulate bitcoins. Chinese are using bitcoins to get over the foreign exchange outflow curbs. Bitcoins are attracting short term speculative interest away from gold and silver. In the long term gold and silver are still a better investment than most commodities. At current prices the long term down side risk is limited to twenty percent with chances of over hundred percent rises over the next two years. To those who intend to invest in gold and silver, one word to caution, the pace of rise and fall over the next two years can cause stomach ulcers.


Technically gold and crude oil are bullish. This week’s movement is very crucial to sustain the bullish momentum and also for attracting short term investment flows. Silver I will prefer to remain on the sidelines despite positive technical. Copper will break free from the $246-$260 trading range and form a new range anytime. To all the jobbers, if you are stuck on the wrong end of the price moves you may not be able to trade for the rest of the year. Jobbers use trailing stop losses or better buy market and sell market. Trailing stop losses for jobbers may or may not work.


Let Donald Trump take the oath and become the president of the USA. History is filled with examples of how political leaders have washed away their hands from pre election promises and pre swearing in tweets and speeches. There have to be a certain degree of continuity of policies followed by the new elected representatives. The best example from an Indian perspective is that the BJP had accused the Congress of showing bias towards the USA during their eight year rule. When BJP and its NDA allies come to power, they took more steps to strengthen relations with USA. This is policy continuity.  One cannot divert significantly from previously followed policies unless you are a Rodrigo Duterte (Philippines president). 


COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2017 – current price $1175.50

Bullish over $1170.80 with $1182.70 and $1188.40 as price target

Bearish below $1164.10 with $1153.70 and $1138.10 as price target.

Neutral Zone between: $1164.10-$1170.80

  • Either gold breaks $1188 today or there will be a correction to $1166.20 and $1153.70.
  • Better to remain on the sidelines.
  • Jobbers watch $1176 all the time.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $53.72

Bullish over $53.00 with $54.30 and $56.00 as price target

Bearish below $52.10 with $51.40 and $50.30 as price target

  • Crude oil will break free from the $52.50-$55.00 range and form a new range.
  • Global crude oil demand and effectiveness of production cuts will be the key.
  • Remain on the sidelines.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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