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Asian Metals Market Update: Apr-12-2017

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Wednesday, 12 April 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

Gold and silver have failed to take advantage of positive situations since 2013. The pace of rise in gold and silver has been very disappointing. It is one of the reasons why I am short term cautious. Long term bullishness is intact. The World gold council (WGC) has over the past year tweeted news industrial uses of gold. The gold price so far has been largely dependent on investment flows and jewelry sector demand. Higher industrial demand implies that once the global interest rate hike cycle tops out (at the most by 2018), the pace of rise of gold prices will be much much quicker than expectations.


Easter holiday goers will now rethink their trading strategy (particularly if they are short). Short covering will be there in gold on a break of $1281 and in silver on a break $1857. Momentum at the moment seems to be bullish for gold and silver, but the rise will be dependent on the ability to break past key resistances of $1281 and $1857.


A June interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in my view is more or less a certainty as far as I am concerned. After the June FOMC meet, there should be a big delay (on interest rate hikes) as the world takes stock of the political developments in Europe. Europe is becoming New Delhi in the late eighties. In New Delhi’s Palika Bazar bomb scare in the late eighties was a regular phenomenon. Religious radicalist want to convert western Europe into another Kashmir. The trend is there as bombings are frequent. France, Germany all is happening now. No nation wants to play cricket in Pakistan. The Pakistanization of Europe has already begun. Gold and other safe havens will only rise. Short term price falls (largely due to interest rate factor) should be used to invest for the long term.


COMEX GOLD JUNE 2017 – current price $1276.30

Bullish over $1266.30 with $1281.10 and $1296.80 as price target

Bearish below $1258.40 with $1251.90-$1246.80 and $1235.10 as price target.

Neutral Zone between: $1258.40-$1266.30

  • Gold needs to trade over $1275 for the rest of the day to rise to $1286.70 and $1296.70
  • Initial support is at $1272. There will be sellers below $1272 and a crash if gold trades below $1272 either in the UK session or the US session.

MCX INDUSTRIAL METALS UPDATE – prices in Indian Rupees below

MCX zinc April: Key price to watch is 166. There will be another wave of sell off below 166 to 162.90 and 160.70. Only a break of 168.40 will resume the intraday bullish zone. A daily close below 166 today will be very bearish for zinc in the short term.

MCX lead April: key support is at 143. Lead needs to trade over 143 to rise to 147.70 and 151.10. Sell only below 143 to 140.60 and 138.60. Only a break of 147.30 will resume the intraday bullish zone.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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UK session starts around 2:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 7pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)




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