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Asian Metals Market Update: May-05-2017

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Friday, 5 May 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

There can be a clash between long term support and short term bearish momentum. Silver, crude oil and copper are near long term supports. Gold if it falls after NFP can test long term support as well. France election result (if there is a surprise) will have a bigger impact for gold and currency markets than the US nonfarm payroll numbers. Only a NFP number below 150,000 along with backward revisions in previous months will result in gold and silver zooming and the greenback moving into a short term bearish zone. I expect physical demand to be higher in India today for gold.


The next three days closing (including today) is very crucial for gold and silver. Gold and silver need a daily closing of over $1238 and $1641 till Tuesday to have hopes of a starting a short term bullish trend. Inverse correlation between gold and bitcoin will continue in the short term. After the NFP, trader focus will switch to political news such as British exit from EU etc.


To all the technical traders, today’s close is less relevant. To me Monday’s close is very important as it could set the direction of all metals and currency markets till early June.


COMEX GOLD JUNE 2017 – current price $1229.60

Bullish over $1218.10 with $1238.60 and $1254.10 as price target

Bearish below $1211.30 with $1206.80 and $1194.10 as price target.

Neutral Zone between: $1211.30-$1218.80

  • There is a technical congestion between $1206-$1211-$1218 zone. Gold needs to trade over this zone till next week to rise to $1278 and $1309.
  • Overall trend as well as momentum is bearish. However if gold manages to trade over $1206-$1211-$1218 zone, I am sure gold might just form a short term bottom.
  • Jobbers watch $1223 and $1233 all the time.

MCX GOLD JUNE – previous day close Rs.28072

100% retracement is at 27841. Gold needs to trade over 27841 till next week to rise to 29056 and 29776. Trend as well as momentum is down, but if gold manages to trade over 27841, then it will rise to 29776 and more before month end. Big sell off only below 27841.

(prices in Indian rupees above)

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $45.54

Bullish over $44.30 with $46.30 and $48.30 as price target

Bearish below $43.70 with $43.10 and $42.20 as price target

  • 100% retracement is at $44.82. Key long term support is at $44.30. Crude oil needs to trade over $44.30-$44.82 zone to rise to $48.70 and $49.80.
  • Trend as well as momentum is down. But if crude oil manages to trade over $44.30-$44.82 zone, then crude oil may just have formed a short term bottom.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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