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Asian Metals Market Update: May-08-2017

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 8 May 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

It will be a technical trade as there have not been any surprises in the French elections. Key central bank meetings are over. An interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in its June meeting is more or less a certainty. Fundamental weakness due to lack of expected demand (in gold and silver) is preventing them from zooming. Gold in bitcoin terms is rising. Buyers are looking for a bottom to buy.


In India smuggled gold forms a large part of demand. The holy month of Ramzan is starting around 27th May. My experience is that gold smuggling zeros in the month of Ramzan in India. Hindu marriage season will be at its peak time in the month of June. Those who have their marriages next month will be looking to use lower gold prices to buy for the marriages. I still expect higher gold prices next month in India due to supply imbalances. Please note that the Modi government is hell bent to sway Indians from buying gold or investing in gold. Voluminous increase in paper work at every level of buying as well as selling is a means to lower demand. These tricks will work in urban areas. In rural India and/or semi-urban India gold demand will continue to rise. Smugglers are selling more gold in rural India. Urban Indian gold demand will also rise from next year as all the post negative demonetization effects vanish. I am seeing a change in urban consumption in urban pattern in India to small gold bars, higher gold demand in demat form instead of traditional pure gold jewelry. (I have my apprehensions on gold purchases in demat form as a means of long term investment. I believe that in the long term any government can seize your gold in demat form).


Technically gold and silver are oversold but bearish. Direction of the US dollar will be the key.


COMEX SILVER JULY 2017 – current price $1646.60

Bullish over $1629 with $1677 and $1700 as price target

Bearish below $1614 with $1600 and $1583 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1614 and $1629

·         Silver needs to trade over $1619 to rise to $1700 and $1776.

·         Big sell off below $1619 to $1583. However short sellers trade very carefully between $1620 and $1644 zone.

·         Long term investors use a buy on dips strategy with a stop loss below $1280 a price target of $2049 and $2209 by end October.

COMEX COPPER JULY 2017 – current price $250.40

Bullish over $249.90 with $253.60 and $258.20 as price target

Bearish below $247.90 with $245.00 and $242.60 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $247.90-$249.90

  • 200 day moving average at $249.90 is the key support. Copper needs to trade over $249.90 to rise to $258 and $264.
  • There will be a sell off below $2496.90 to $247.90 and $242.10.
  • A daily close below $249.90 today will be very bearish for copper for the rest of the week.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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