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Asian Metals Market Update: May-16-2017

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Tuesday, 16 May 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

Traders can focus on Trump. US President Donald Trump’s top foreign policy advisers raced to contain political damage from a report saying he revealed sensitive classified information to Russia’s top diplomat during an Oval Office meeting last week. Trump problems will be good news for gold bulls. Buyers and investors of gold are not there on the hope of more price falls. If gold shows some short term strength then laggards will start investing in gold.


There can be an inverse correlation between gold prices in US dollars and gold prices in bitcoins. I expect this trend to continue for the rest of the year. Zooming bitcoin prices is also one of the reasons why gold in US dollars is not rising. Gold prices will zoom if and when bitcoin starts falling.


Last week, there was a massive attack in global computer system. Governments are trying to move into to zero cash all emoney based system. Governments are even trying to induce you to buy gold in electronic form. All your investment will become useless if and when there is a similar attack or a more fatal attack on global computer systems. Investment in physical gold is the need of the hour. Physical gold investment is the only liquid hedge against a potential crash in the global emoney system. Gold is not to be looked at as a short term quick money investment.


In India, there are a lot of concerns that automation, cloud computing etc. will lead to massive job firing in the technology sector over the next few years. To me this is not new. If one looks at the past calculations made by NAASCOM, FICCI and other trade bodies in India of the year 2001 and before, they had already anticipated firing in the sector on or after 2015. No sector is invincible. Layoffs will happen at some point of time. Currently some media reports say that those who are over thirty five years and above have greater chances of getting the pink slip. Experienced tech sector employees have greater chances of getting fired than freshers or new hires. Financial planning and expenditure control comes here. In India families are getting intimidated by facebook, whatsapp and other forms of social media. Some of the families are in debt due to pressures created by social media. For example, I know a friend of mine who took a debt on the credit card just for a vacation in another country. Personally my friend was not interested in taking a debt but spouse pressure due to her social media interactions resulted in foreign holiday destination. What I am trying to trying to tell is that contingency planning or emergency planning is a must for everyone whether someone is a businessman or on the job. Debt or EMI’s should be taken first for the house only or at the most a vehicle. Have you ever thought of purchasing gold jewelry by EMI instead of a depreciable asset? In India the cost of living in most cities is zooming. Thanks to facebook and whatsapp, pressure to spend more is very high on the average Indian. The Indian saving rate could be negative in the next two decades.


Technically gold needs to trade over $1224.10 and silver needs to trade over $1649 to continue their bullish run.


COMEX SILVER JULY 2017 – current price $1672.40

Bullish over $1649 with $1691 and $1737 as price target

Bearish below $1629 with $1611 and $1594 as price target

·         Silver can rise to $1700 and $1737 as long as it trades over $1661.

·         Big rise or short covering will be there only if silver manages to trade over $1682.

·         A daily close over $1666 today will be very bullish for silver for the rest of the week.

MCX SILVER JULY – prices in Indian Rupees below

Silver needs to trade over 38112 to rise to 38980 and 39432. Sell off only below 38112 or in case silver does not break 38980. Technically silver is bullish. But past experience is that silver bullishness has faded whenever optimism rises.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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