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Asian Metals Market Update: May-22-2017

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 22 May 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

There are lots of Federal Reserve speakers this week as well as economic data releases. These numbers will be taken seriously by the markets as they are pre FOMC data. The FOMC meet is on 14th June. UK elections are also nearing. Lowering of North Korean risk and other Asian geopolitical risk will be bearish for bullion. Demand is not that much. $1250 is the middle of the road price gold. +/-$50 either side move can happen very quickly. Gold should delink from currency price moves this week (as observed last week).


Silver is stuck between the devil and the deep sea. In the short term, silver is not yet out of the bearish shadow. Low silver demand is preventing silver prices from a rise. The price of silver has been subdued to manipulation by a cartel of large banks. Silver is a great long term investment but I see a big price rise only from 2019. Between now and end 2018, $1470 and $2290 are the key break points. In the short term silver can see rallies. But to attract long term investors silver prices have to show a solid price bottom formation.


Long term copper is also bullish as supplies move into a deficit zone from the last quarter of the year. In the short term copper can see sharp corrections, depending upon moves in the currency markets. As long as copper trades over $236 chances of a rise to $323 will be very high for the rest of the year. The risk to copper prices will be a war with North Korea as it will adversely affect Chinese exports and Chinese demand.


Asia is the center of crude oil demand. Vehicle sales in key Asian countries are zooming. Hedge funds along with connivance with producers always try to ensure that prices zoom of anything which is in high demand in Asian nations. Crude oil prices are also getting the same fate. I believe that crude oil prices have formed a long term bottom. Key long term resistance is between the $57-$62 zone. Key support is between the $37-$41 zone. However it will be very difficult to determine the pace of rise of crude oil and energies in general. (Increase in solar power generation affects coal prices. Electric vehicles have a long way to go before it starts affecting Asian crude oil demand).


COMEX GOLD JUNE 2017 – current price $1251.80

Bullish over $1255.80 with $1262.60 and $1272.70 as price target

Bearish below $1245.90 with $1234.60 and $1228.80 as price target.

Neutral Zone between: $1245.90-$1255.80

  • Gold needs to trade over $1249.10 to prevent a fall to $1241.10 and $1228.80.
  • A big rise will be there only if gold trades over $1255.80 for the rest of the day.
  • Only a daily close over $1256 today and tomorrow will be very bullish for gold in the short term.

COMEX SILVER JULY 2017 – current price $1686.80

Bullish over $1652 with $1707 and $1738 as price target

Bearish below $1641 with $1627.60 and $1613.90 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1641 and $1652

·         Key resistance is at $1707. There will be another wave of rise over $1707 to $1774.

·         Initial support is at $1672. Sellers only if silver trades below $1672 either in the UK session or the US session.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $51.13

Bullish over $50.40 with 51.72 and $53.70 as price target

Bearish below $49.40 with $48.60 and $47.70 as price target

  • Crude oil can rise to $53.70 as long as it trades over 200 day moving average of $50.30.
  • A daily close over $50.30 today and tomorrow will be very bullish for crude oil for the rest of the month.
  • Sell off only below $50.30

COMEX COPPER JULY 2017 – current price $257.70

Bullish over $255.10 with $260.40 and $262.70 as price target

Bearish below $252.90 with $251.10 and $249.10 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $252.90-$255.10

  • Copper can rise to $262.70 as long as it trades over $255.
  • Sell off only below $255.00.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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