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Asian Metals Market Update: May-29-2017



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 29 May 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

It is a big week for the US dollar as well as gold, silver and industrial metals. US May nonfarm payrolls will set the trend for the US dollar and also decide whether there will be more than one interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year. UK elections trends can result in safe haven demand for gold from the nation. India will decide the GST rate on gold sales and jewelry sales this week too.

 

Geopolitics gets a new nation in the form of Philippines. State versus ISIS war in a small region of the nation will greater chances of the same spreading to more parts of Philippines. The current situation in Philippines is similar to Syria of 2012. Assad’s war started with a small bunch of so called terrorists which has gulped the whole nation. I will be looking for clues whether Philippines will be converted into a Syria as state heads of both these nations do not bow to the whims and fancies of NATO leaders. (NATO and the UN have a history of ousting pro people leaders like Gadaffi, Assad, Hosni Mubarak to name a few). I am very confident that both gold and bitcoins will benefit if the situation in the Philippines turn to worse.

 

Philippines problems get aggravated by its neighbor, the most populous Islamic nation in the world “Indonesia” and also Malaysia. Indonesia and Malaysia have a great percentage of population leaning towards the ISIS. The peaceful nation of Australia will also get affected if Philippines problems get aggravated. I am looking at the geopolitical developments in East Asia including the South China Sea.

 

The current investor focus in bitcoins and other crypto currencies: Gold investors have switched to bitcoins. Short term traders have moved to crypto currencies instead of gold and silver. I do not foresee any quick fire short term rise in gold and silver unless bitcoins moves into a short term bearish phase. Bitcoins can see sharp corrections but I am unsure whether the same will last. Greater bitcoins acceptability can result in either (a) Mount Gox like situation wherein some of the websites vanish overnight (b) More and more nations legalizing Bitcoins and also intervening to prevent sharp moves.

 

Metal traders need to trade carefully this week as there will be small phases of big one way moves.

 

COMEX SILVER JULY 2017 – current price $1735.50

Bullish over $1711 with $1759.30 and $1786.30 as price target

Bearish below $1698 with $1678 and $1665 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1698 and $1711

·         Key weekly resistance is at $1759.30. There will be another big wave of rise over $1759.30 to $1775 and $1728.

·         On the lower side silver needs to trade over $1705 for the whole week to continue its bullish zone.

·         Trend is bullish.

MCX SILVER JULY – prices in Indian Rupees below

200 week moving average at 40636 is the key weekly resistance. There will be a technical breakout over 40636 to 41123 and 41874. On the lower side silver needs to trade over 39552 to continue its bullish zone and/or prevent it from moving into a short term bearish zone. Overall intraday trend is bullish.

COMEX COPPER JULY 2017 – current price $256.80

Bullish over $256.90 with $259.90 and $263.90 as price target

Bearish below $253.30 with $251.60 and $249.10 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $253.30-$256.90

  • 200 day moving average at $253.40. Copper needs to trade over $253.40 to rise to $262.20.
  • Sell off only below $253.40. Trend is neutral.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

Follow us on Twitter @insigniaconsul1

UK session starts around 1:00 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

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