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Asian Metals Market Update: June-26-2017

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 26 June 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

Factors which can affect markets                                       


Trump’s trumpet is over now. Trump is different from the previous American presidents as he tries to lure more and more companies to create jobs. He being a billionaire is trying to rectify America’s balance sheet. But the American politicians are trying their best to start an impeachment proceeding against him as they do not like change. May be they do not like the change in power. Every kind of proposed legislation has been blocked. This has been the American political scenario. The reverse has been the American growth story which has been showing signs of sustainment. The European political scene is getting the stabilization doze after the French election and UK elections. UK elections have failed to create any volatility. German elections in my view will be rigged in favor of Merkel. Options market bets are showing a bullish trend for the euro against the US dollar for the rest of the year. Turkey alienating itself from NATO is just a tip of the iceberg. In the future I see NATO being replaced by group of Islamic nations who are currently funding wahabisim. In the end, all the political developments so far in 2017 makes me believe that the common man should not write off gold and silver as a long term investment destination.


The next two weeks are big weeks for all metals and energies. Incoming US economic data releases will give us a clue over the pace of interest rate hikes for the rest of the day. Concerns are there over the continued rise in American stock markets. There is also some section of traders who are increasing bearish bets on the US dollar for the rest of the year. So far Trump has not done anything to increase jobs. Foxconn, Infosys etc have all announced job creation but actuals will take a lot of time. If jobs creation is the sole criteria for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve then interest rates will rise at a much quicker pace next year than in the next six months.


Over the past few years gold and silver have changed direction a week after “Eid”. If this trend continues then gold and silver may form a short term bottom this week and rise next week. Technically gold needs to trade over $1227 on a daily closing basis to continue its short term bullish trend. Spot silver technicals say that it needs to trade over $16.06 in July to September quarter to continue its bullish journey. After 2008, there has not been a big hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico to ensure zooming of crude oil prices. The first hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico is over the verge of arrival. Hurricane news will ensure crude oil prices limiting their slide.



COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2017 – current price $1255.60

Bullish over $1250.80 with $1265.60 and $1277.70 as price target

Bearish below $1246.10 with $1241.30 and $1235.10 as price target.

Neutral Zone between: $1246.10-$1250.80

  • Gold can rise to $1277.70 this week as long as it trades over $1246-$1251 zone.
  • Sell off only below $1246 to $1228 and $1214.10 this week.
  • Jobbers watch $1256 all the time.

COMEX SILVER JULY 2017 – current price $1664.80

Bullish over $1642 with $1690.20 and $1716 as price target

Bearish below $1620.20 with $1612.20 and $1580.40 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1620.20-$1642.00

·         Silver will see another wave of rise over $1675.20 to $1701.70 and $1716.50.

·         Sellers only below $1642.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $43.45

Bullish over $42.70 with 44.80 and $46.60 as price target

Bearish below $42.10 with $41.30 and $40.70 as price target

  • Initial resistance is at $43.80. There will be another wave of rise over $43.80 to $45.20 and $46.60.
  • Initial support is at $42.70. Sell off only below $42.70 today.
  • Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico should result in more rise today.
  • Oversold. Looks for signs of short covering.

COMEX COPPER JULY 2017 – current price $263.10

Bullish over $259.55 with $266.60 and $270.90 as price target

Bearish below $256.80 with $253.80 and $251.20 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $256.80-$259.55

  • Copper can rise to $274.60 this week as long as it trades over $256-$259 zone.
  • Initial resistance is at $264.70. Quick rise if copper manages to trade over $264.70.
  • A daily close over $264.70 today and tomorrow will result in another wave of rise.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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