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Asian Metals Market Update: July-03-2017

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 3 July 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

Factors which can affect markets                                       


Tomorrow’s US holiday can result in lower trading volumes today also. Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls will tell us whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September or November. A big fortnight for the US dollar. If the US dollar continues its slide in the next fortnight then at least ten percent more weakness will be there in the short term. I do not think FOMC minutes this week will have any impact on bullion or the US dollar unless there are dissident members on June’s interest rate hike.


Traders will look to news from quarter end perspective. Industrial metals (except nickel) rose in June. June’s closing of metals and energies reflect that investors are more focused on fundamentals. Nickel and natural gas are fundamentally weak so they did not rise much. Copper’s fundamental outlook is better from the final quarter of the year into next year. Short squeeze along with rebuilding of fresh long positions added to the rise. Silver is a case of “doodh ka jaala chach ko bhi fookh ke peeta hai” or bitten unlimited times hence fearful to invest in silver.


I am sure that gold will break free the recent $1179-$1214-$1300 trading range and form a new range anytime soon. The world will be watching Indian demand this quarter. Dushera is on 30th September with Diwali on 19th October. Hindu festivals are a bit early this year. Higher Indian demand will result in gold prices trading with a bullish bias this quarter. There is no panic buying in India as gold prices have been between Rs.27500 and Rs.31000 for the past nearly two years. Jewelry buyers are buying gold only on occasion and not panic buying due to relatively stable gold prices. Pure physical gold long term investors are slowly a moving into a rare breed category in India. (Please do not get confused by the Paytm egold sales as I believe that they are mostly less than one year investment).


Indians are moving into the credit card debt trap. They have not learnt anything from Americans. Every global corporation wants to be in India. Current India is like the 70’s of America as far as consumer demand pattern similarity is concerned. Average American’s are in a debt trap. In a decade time India will equal America as far as per capita debt is concerned. Amazon’s discount is not ever lasting. Amazon is trying to addict Indian’s to its shopping and prices will rise once Indian’s get addicted to Amazon. I have said over the past ten years that Oligopoly is the death knell for the common man. As India’s political masters convert it into Oligopoly market, Indian’s will also feel the pinch in the long term. The worst time will be faced by Indian babies born on or after 2010. Babies born (in India) after 2010 will face very high cost of living and difficult to get jobs and manage debt once they reach working age. The worst part is that India’s education system is outdated and pathetic. Quality education for children is outside the affordability index of most Indian parents even now.


COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER 2017 – current price $1656.10

Bullish over $1654 with $1688.60 and $1705.20 as price target

Bearish below $1637.80 with $1625.10 and $1608.30 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1637.80-$1654.00

·         The region between $1608-$1625-$1654 is an anything can happen zone. This is the very long term support zone.

·         Silver needs to trade over $1608-$1625-$1654 in the next two weeks to rise to $1808.80 and $1865.50.

·         Right now the trend is slightly down. But sellers need to beware as long as silver trades over the $1608-$1625 zone.

·         Jobbers watch $1654 all the time.

COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2017 – current price $270.10

Bullish over $268.10 with $275.10 and $280.30 as price target

Bearish below $265.40 with $261.90 and $259.50 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $268.10-$265.40

  • Copper can rise to $280.30 and $287.10 this week as long as it trades over $264.70.
  • Sell off only if copper (a) falls below $264.70 (b) Copper does not even break and trade over $278.50 this week.
  • A daily close over $272.30 today and Friday can result in $309.50 and $332.70 in July.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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