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Asian Metals Market Update: July-06-2017

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Thursday, 6 July 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

All the bad news in gold and silver has been factored in by traders. This is reflected by this week’s fall. Even a marginally good US jobs number (starting with the US private ADP jobs number) can result in short covering in gold and silver. Short sellers need to look for signs of short covering and subsequent rebuilding of long positions.


I have been asked by my jeweler brothers whether they should start stocking physical gold and physical silver to meet demand for the upcoming Hindu festival season. It is nearly three months for the festival to begin. Imputed return in private call money market in India is around two percent per month. For three months it will be six percent. Gold and silver need to rise six percent over the next three months for me to advise them to invest in excess gold and silver inventory. Yesterday’s closing price of near dated MCX gold and silver future are Rs.28107 and Rs.37342. A six percent rise implies that MCX gold and silver near dated future should rise to Rs.29793 and Rs.39582. In my view silver can easily rise to Rs.39582 after three months. But risk of more fall is there before the move to Rs.39582. Gold prices can rise to Rs.29793 in the next ninety days as long as it trades over Rs.27400. One can start buying gold and silver in small quantities at current prices and increase exposure of any five percent fall. However physical gold and silver will need to be hedged in future market if physical gold prices in India falls below Rs.27400 and physical silver price falls below Rs.35400. (all prices in the above paragraph is in Indian Rupees)


The next four days till Tuesday is very crucial for gold, silver, copper and crude oil. Boom or Bust scenario will be there. Gold needs to trade over the $1197-$1203 zone to continue its long term bullish run. Silver needs to trade over $1560 to restart its journey to $2032.


MCX SILVER SEPTEMBER 2017 – previous day close Rs.37342

100% retracement is at 36715. Silver needs to trade over 36715 for the rest of the month to rise to 39281 and 41466 over the next two months. Momentum is still bearish for silver. But there can be sharp pullback rallies as long as silver manages to trade over 36715.

Today silver needs to trade over 37102 to rise to 38403. Sellers will be there below 37102 to 36715 and 36334.

(prices in Indian Rupees below)

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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