-- Published: Monday, 10 July 2017 | Print | Disqus
Factors which can affect markets
Expectations of an early interest rate hike after June US nonfarm payrolls resulted in the slide of gold and silver. Key long term supports are being tested. Either gold and silver manage to trade over key long term support OR in case they fall below key long term support then there can be new multi year lows. FOMC meet is on 26th July. The Federal Reserve will not be there in August but will be there in the middle of September. Continued US jobs growth in July and August will not result in an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October. I expect an October interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve if the US continues with higher employment in this quarter.
Investors all over the world are obsessed with the global liquidity cycle and the global interest rate cycle. Gold has been a very short term investment play this year. Investors are not holding on their gold investment for the medium term to long term as there are other investments which offer quicker return. The inability of gold to show signs of breaking past $1500 is also preventing higher investment demand.
With every fall in silver, the chances of nearing a long term bottom also rises. Over the next eighteen months, silver may not fall below $10 an ounce. Silver should form a very long term bottom this year. Silver is not for the short term trader or short term investment. Premiums in Asia in silver have been on the rise. Industrial demand for silver in the form of solar panels and in home appliances will see a major rise from next year. I see a major global replacement demand for home appliances next year from all over the globe. Most of the new home appliance and current technology which we use for daily use has some silver. New factories which are being currently set up or factories which are getting a technology upgrade will use a higher amount of silver. (Please note that I intend to use silver’s current fall to make a new long term investment in physical silver. I have never advised to invest in ETF’s and I continue with the view.)
There are no big US economic data release this week. It will be a technical trade. Global investors are just obsessed with central bank liquidity changes and ignoring everything else. If investors are making new long term investment just based of their view of global interest rate cycle, they will be doomed. One should look at fundamental changes as well as political changes. Asia is one big consumer of everything. West Asia has been destroyed by NATO. The urge to control natural resources has led NATO to East Asia and Korean peninsula. NATO wants to convert East Asia into another Gobi desert. But NATO policy makers are failing to realize that a China-Russia combination could easily convert Western Europe into a Sahara desert. The invincibility factor for NATO will not work in East Asia. One also needs to invest for the long term in physical gold and silver due to potential higher war like situation in East Asia.
A BIT ON PHYSICAL GOLD PRICES IN INDIA
Over the past two years Indian gold prices have found it difficult to fall below Rs.27400 per ten grams. There will be a big technical breakdown in gold prices if and only if Indian physical gold prices trades below Rs.27400 for a few days. There will be sharp pullback rallies as long as Indian physical gold prices manages to trade over Rs.27400. Momentum continues to be bearish for gold. I expect a big jump in physical gold premiums in India today.
(Gold prices mentioned above are Rs per ten grams)
COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2017 – current price $265.80
Bullish over $264.60 with $268.60 and $271.60 as price target
Bearish below $262.50 with $260.70 and $256.80 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $262.50-$264.60.
- Copper needs to trade over $262.50 on daily closing basis this week to rise to $273.80.
- Crash only below $262.50. Momentum is neutral.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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-- Published: Monday, 10 July 2017 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com