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Asian Metals Market Update: July-17-2017



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 17 July 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

It was quite a week last week. For the bears of gold and silver, it was the distance between the slip and the lip. Trump’s Russia connections and a hawkish Federal Reserve came to the rescue of gold and silver bulls. Low inflation will reduce the pace of interest rate hikes. Interest rates in the USA will rise at a faster pace if and only if the Federal Reserve ignores inflation and focusses on other macro factors of the US economy. Global central banks and not just the Federal Reserve do not have room to reduce liquidity by much. If they increase interest rates at a quicker pace till next year, then a lot of so called “too large to fail” banks could be get. There are also certain sectors in every nation which are nearing bubble zone and could get busted due to quicker interest rate hikes. Gold and silver will zoom once traders perceive that interest rate hikes have formed a medium term top.

 

China is on a land encroachment spree with most of its neighbors. Other than its northern borders with Russia China is unofficially increasing its land boundaries. Some nations have succumbed to China while others like India under an able political leadership are now trying to counter China. War/skirmishes with China are imminent as far as India is concerned. Chinese land encroachment policy will result in increase in the pace of rise in physical gold demand from Asia. Chinese government policies ensure that gold buying reaches to each and every strata of its people. (Unlike Indian government which is trying to take all steps to dissuade Indians to buy gold).

 

The effects of the Islamization of Europe are being felt in a big way. In my view the UK more or less has a state support to Islamic terrorists. All global terror organizations openly raise funding in the UK. The Scotland Yard knows the terrorists and supports the global Islamic terrorists as long as they are able to use them. So called British exit from the EU will be more peaceful for the Eurozone as UK terror imports will reduce. Europe’s daily rise in terror threats will ensure that gold and other safe havens demand will be on the boil over the coming years.

 

In India there is one disturbing phenomenon. I am seeing children and teenagers getting radicalized by various religious organizations. Children are the backbone of any nations. All the current rosy Indian growth stories will become a nightmare once these children become adults with a radicalized mind set. The Indian government has to take solid steps at the very foundation level. Indian law makers need to ignore the media and act against everyone who radicalizes children, irrespective of any religion, case or creed. Further steps must be taken to ensure that religiously radical organizations do not get their funds and political patronage. In this front India should learn from China and use extreme censorship as a means to prevent children/teenage radicalization. Religious radicalization whether in India, Europe or anywhere on earth derails growth and causes mass unrest. If one does not have any investment in physical gold, they must do so in the next six months.  What you sow is what you get. Europe, the UK and the USA will get the sowed religious radicalization product/tree sooner than later.

 

Bitcoins – current price $1974.10

 

I am not an expert in bitcoins. I am just giving the technical view. In India bitcoins are not officially recognized as such and Indians should ignore the view. Intraday volatility is very high. Low risk traders should avoid bitcoins even in their dreams.

 

Key support is at $1867.30. There will be another wave of sell off below $1867.30 to $1560. Intraday rise/bullish trend only over $2044 to $2213 and $2370.

 

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $46.60

Bullish over $45.90 with $47.40 and $49.20 as price target

Bearish below $45.20 with $44.40 and $43.60 as price target

  • Crude oil can rise to $49.90.40 as long as it trades over $45.40
  • Sell off will be there below $45.40 to $44.70 and $43.40.

COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2017 – current price $266.90

Bullish over $266.60 with $272.40 and $274.80 as price target

Bearish below $263.30 with $260.80 and $256.80 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $263.30-$266.60.

  • Copper can rise to $278.30 and $284.50 this week as long as it trades over $266.40
  • Trend is bullish.
  • A daily close over $272.40 today will be very bullish for copper for the rest of the week.

MCX  COPPER AUGUST 2017 – previous day close Rs.383.65

Copper can rise to 388.30 and 392.90 today as long as it trades over the 378.90-381.10 zone.

MCX copper weekly view: Copper can rise to 402 this week as long as it trades over 374.40. Sell off/bearish trend will be there if (a) Copper trades below 374.40 (b) Copper does not break 392.90 which is the initial resistance.

(prices in Indian rupees above).

 

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

Follow us on Twitter @insigniaconsul1

UK session starts around 1:00 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

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              (10:30 am to 5:30 pm Indian time, Monday to Friday)

 


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