-- Published: Friday, 21 July 2017 | Print | Disqus
Factors which can affect markets
The US dollar crashed, gold and silver have risen just because American administrators are searching the past life of Donald Trump. They just want to create a media hype to impeach him. Trump is going against the current political system for the betterment of the common American which has not been digested by the system rulers. The democratically elected president in America does not have any powers. The election is just a sham to fool the masses. It is the system which rules the world and not just America. Trump is going against the system. System rulers want Trump to resign or force him to resign on some pretext or the other. Gold and silver will continue to rise as long as America faces self-imposed political uncertainty. The US dollar will gain if and when economics takes over politics.
The key factor affecting gold prices over the past three years is mainly American interest rate trends. The rest of all the factors have been ignored more or less by the investors. TV, internet, social media have all been filled with where US interest rates and global interest rates are headed. For example, if there is an increase in US nonfarm payrolls for any month, traders will start factoring a quicker pace of US interest rate hikes followed by gains in US dollar, small rise in US stock markets and fall in gold and silver prices. You are ignoring rest of the key micro economic factors and macro economic factors. You have been made to forget and ignore the fundamental economic factors and the past by the system. They have created a mirage of rosy short term manipulated global financial markets. Recession happen when the mirage vanishes and reality comes in. History says that towards the end of the second decade of any century, the world faces key political changes and financial changes. I would use the world “metamorphosis”. A change for the world for something new but not necessarily for the betterment of masses. Currently we are going the transition period which implies the need to have a higher portfolio allocation in gold, silver, land and other hard assets for a period of five years and above. Short term crypto currencies the new trading toy for the investment world.
Euro should have crashed yesterday after the European central bank chief did not give any details on the path of tapering. But markets took it otherwise and believed that tapering will be there next year. Technically euro/usd looks headed for 1.2500 in the next ten months. FOMC statement will not have any significant impact on the trend of US dollar or trend of metals and energies unless there is massive surprise.
We have a weekend ahead. Traders will prefer to go long bullion and short US dollar for Monday if the political status quo in USA is maintained.
Bitcoins – current price $2700.
Trend is bullish. Bitcoin to rise to $3049 and $3257.90 by next week as long as it trades over $2370. Initial support is at $2568.
(Please Note: I am not an expert in bitcoins. I am just giving the technical view. In India bitcoins is not officially recognized as such the Indians should ignore the view. Intraday volatility is very high. Low risk traders should avoid bitcoins even in their dreams. )
COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2017 – current price $1244.60
Bullish over $1240.40 with $1248.80 and $1255.30 as price target
Bearish below $1235.30 with $1229.10 and $1221.60 as price target.
Neutral Zone between: $1235.30-$1240.80
- Gold needs to trade over $1232 today to rise to $1260 and $1266.
- Sell off only in case gold does not break $1256 today.
- A daily close over $1243 today will be bullish for next week.
MCX GOLD AUGUST – previous day close Rs.27331
Trend is bullish. Key intraday resistance is between 28405-28466. There will be another wave of rise over 28466 to 28557and 28738. On the lower side as long as gold trades over 28164 till Monday, downside risk will be limited. A daily close over 28405 today should be very bullish for next week.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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-- Published: Friday, 21 July 2017 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com