Short covering and renewed building of long positions will be there in gold and silver if they continue to rise today and tomorrow. If gold rises after the US July nonfarm payrolls (on 4th August) then I expect it to rise to $1508.10 before the end of this quarter. Short term gold and silver are bullish. Medium term to long term will trend after the US NFP will be the key.
Expectation that the pace of interest rate hikes will be slower than markets discounted resulted in a crash of US dollar and zoom of gold. Copper had already risen before the FOMC so the impact was not felt. Next in line is next week’s US July nonfarm payrolls. Interest rate chapter of the Federal Reserve is closed for now.Technically a higher close today and tomorrow in gold, silver, copper and crude oil can result in another five percent gains by next week.
A stronger euro and yen will not be liked by European exporters and Japanese exporters as it gives Chinese goods and American goods an advantage over them in India and other nations where festive seasons will be there in September and October. Dushera on 30th September and Diwali on 19th October in India will result in higher import demand for goods from all over the world. The Dokalim border stand off with China will result in lower Chinese imports. Sellers of Chinese goods in India are cautious plus the social media campaigns to boycott Chinese goods (due to the border standoff) will reduce Chinese imports in the festive period. Imports will not fall in India. Other nations will get the benefit over Chinese goods. In short Europeans and Japanese will try all sorts of tricks to ensure that their currency does not zoom for the rest of the quarter. American manufacturers would like a weaker greenback. Gold and US dollar inverse correlation will be there for the rest of the quarter.
COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER 2017 – current price $1669.00
Bullish over $1632 with $1686.50 and $1713.90 as price target
Bearish below $1621.50 with $1611 and $1582.50 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1621.50-$1632
·100% retracement is at $1686.50. There will be another wave of rise over $1686.50to $1734 and $1771.70
·Sellers will be there under any of the two conditions (a) Silver trades below $1649.00 (b) Silver does not break $1686.50 today.
·Trend is bullish.
·A daily close over $1649.20 today and tomorrow will be very bullish for silver in the short term.
COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2017 – current price $288.30
Bullish over $281.20 with $290.30 -$297.80 as price target
Bearish below $277.80 with $271.10 and $268.40 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $277.80-$281.20
·Key support is at $283.40. Copper needs to trade over $283.40 to rise to $293.90 and $299.10
·Sell off only if copper under any of the two conditions (a) Copper trades $283.40 today (b) Copper does not break $294.90 by tomorrow.
·Month end factors can result in profit in long copper positions any time till tomorrow.
·Momentum as well as technical are bullish.
MCX COPPER AUGUST 2017 – previous day close Rs.408.10
100% retracement is at 414.80. Only a break of 414.80 will trigger another wave of rise to 423.30. On the lower side key intraday support is at 404.40. Sellers will be there only below 404.40 to 398.90 and 392.40. Momentum as well as technical are bullish for copper.
(prices in Indian rupees above)
Disclaimer:Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employeeshave any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure:Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:00 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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