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Asian Metals Market Update: July-31-2017

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 31 July 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

Factors which can affect markets       

This could be a big week for the US dollar as well as metals and energies. Crude oil could zoom if it manages to trade over $50. Boom or bust scenario for the US dollar index. There is nothing positive from Trump and his team. Unending Trump controversies haunt investors. Degradation of US-Russia to before cold war years can have a long term affect for global markets. America is not the sole consumer of the world now. Russian consumer demand is rising. American companies will be looser in the US-Russia spat. US-European union relations could be in serious jeopardy as sanctions on Russia hurt European companies in a big way.


There is also some speculation that the current Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen could be renewed for another term next year. This will be positive for the US dollar and negative for gold and silver as it reduces uncertainty and also the pace of interest rate hikes will faster next year.


I will prefer to trade in the technical on global interest rate factors for the rest of the years and next year. Excess focus on interest rate factors by investors has reduced volatility in global financial markets. I am more concerned on the changes in global political front. European leaders have sold themselves to large corporate houses and to American politicians. Europe is getting into lawless zone, a la Israel-Palestine border thanks to ever growing Islamic migrants. Traditional peace loving European citizens suffer at the cost of sold out politicians. There will be mass unrest as law enforcement officials do every unlawful activity under the garb of promoting peace. Masses will force Europe to get closer to Russia. The China bully factor in Asia needs to be closely watched. All these political developments if they get worse can result in a short term hot money into gold and silver. If and when these happen, breaking of key technical resistances will only be of symbolic nature.


US July nonfarm payrolls (on Friday) will negatively affect precious metals only if it comes in over 240,000 without any previous month downward revisions.


COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER 2017 – current price $1672.20

Bullish over $1651 with $1699.00 and $1728.60 as price target

Bearish below $1640.50 with $1625 and $1610.50 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1640.50-$1651

·        100 day moving average is around $1697. Only a break of $1697 will trigger another wave of rise to $1714 and $1752.

·        Sellers will be there under any of the two conditions (a) Silver trades below $1651.00 (b) Silver does not break $1699 today.

·        A daily close over $1699.00 today will be very bullish for silver tomorrow.

MCX SILVER SEPTEMBER 2017– previous day close Rs.38460

Silver can rise to 38984 and 39280 today as long as it trades over 37937. Trend is bullish. Sellers only below 37937 today.

(prices in Indian Rupees above)

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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