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Asian Metals Market Update: September-21-2017



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Thursday, 21 September 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

A December interest rate hike and more hikes next year is more or less a certainty. This is the first time this year that the Federal Reserve has been very clear on the US economy and the US interest rate cycle. Any reduction on North Korean risk can result in another wave of sell off for gold and silver. The fall is good for a sustained medium term rise in gold and silver. Indian demand for gold will rise for the next month. I can expect the media to be filled with all kinds of bearish views on gold and silver. I prefer to use the sharp fall (if any) in gold and silver for the rest of the year to invest for a period of three years and more. Once again my preference will always be for physical gold as opposed to a gold ETF. I will be looking for price bottom formation every day for medium term opportunities.

 

China has a holiday from 1st October to 6th October. On 9th October the USA is closed. In between we have the US September nonfarm payrolls on 6th October. Chinese are the great gobblers of gold. I expect massive Indian demand and massive Chinese demand for gold (if they continue to fall) on or before 30th September.

 

A hung German parliament could be a new bullish factor for gold. Merkel is expected to win in the German elections on the 25th/Monday. But still anything can happen in politics. The French are regretting electing Macron. Greek’s are regretting electing their leaders. Merkel getting elected will imply that Germany will be one more step nearer to become a Sharia Nation. German politics is another reason for me to remain invested in gold.

 

COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2017 – current price $1303.20

Bullish over $1309.70 with $1314.80 and $1321.90 as price target.

Bearish below $1303.80 with $1297.30 and $1265.60 as price target.

Neutral Zone between: $1303.80-$1309.70

  • Gold can fall to $1292.50 and $1282.30 as long as it trades below $1309.70.
  • Rise will be there if gold does not fall below $1292.50.

MCX GOLD OCTOBER – previous day close Rs.29774.

Gold can fall to 29206 and 28555 in the short term as long as it trades below 29824. Key long term support is at 29206. There will be a technical breakdown below 29206 to 28555 if gold trades below 29206 anytime for the rest of the month. I prefer to invest in gold for the long term if gold prices fall to 28555.

Physical gold investors can invest in gold for next Diwali around 28500 if prices fall.

(prices in Indian rupees above)

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

Follow us on Twitter @insigniaconsul1

UK session starts around 1:00 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

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