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Asian Metals Market Update: October-06-2017



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Friday, 6 October 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

Chinese demand will be key to precious metals and industrial metals once China reopens tomorrow. Industrial metals except nickel have remained firm in the last week. Gold and silver have fallen in the last week. If the US dollar continues to gain and Chinese demand is not in line with expectations then gold and silver will see another wave of sell off. If not then gold and silver may form a medium-term bottom. Gold jewelry demand in India will be on the higher side today and till Sunday due to Hindu festival of “Karwa Chauth” on Sunday wherein wives fast from dawn till dusk for the long life of their husbands. It is a big gifting festival like Valentine’s day. But if jewelry sales in India disappoint (till Sunday) then I do not see a big recovery in gold demand in India unless prices nosedive.

 

US September nonfarm payrolls number needs to be seen from a totality prospective and not just the headline numbers. Euro and Pound are near key long-term support of 1.1683 and 1.3096 against the US dollar. There will be a massive three percent crash for both of them if they trade below 1.1683 and 1.3096 after the release of US September nonfarm payrolls. Big day for the US dollar.

 

Russia and Saudi Arabia getting close should be bad news for USA’s clout in the Middle East. Just like Turkey Saudi Arabia is also demanding the S400 Russian air defense system. Defense deals between nations are never alone. They always have a political motive. Two big energy producers shaking hands will be bad news for the US dollar and good news for gold bulls. The USA in my view will shift focus from the Middle East to the South China sea. The South China sea is the latest Middle East. We all should enjoy the events in the South China sea and increase portfolio allocation to physical gold.

 

COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2017 – current price $1272.30

Bullish over $1278.10 with $1283.40 and $1290.10 as price target.

Bearish below $1267.30 with $1262.80 and $1250.90 as price target.

Neutral Zone between: $1267.30-$1278.10

  • Gold needs to trade over the $1260-$1265 zone to rise to $1290.10 and $1304.60.
  • Trend is down. But crash will be there only if it gold trades below $1260 after the release of US September nonfarm payrolls.

MCX GOLD DECEMBER 2017 – previous day close Rs.29387

  • Key short-term support is at Rs.29228. Gold can fall to 29228 and 29042 as long as it trades below 29590.
  • Buyers will be there if (a) Gold does not fall below 29228 (b) Gold trades over 29590 today.

(prices in Indian rupees above)

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

Follow us on Twitter @insigniaconsul1

UK session starts around 1:00 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

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