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Asian Metals Market Update: January-11-2018

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Thursday, 11 January 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

In my view there is nothing special about China’s intention of reducing US treasury investment. This was bound to happen much earlier. China is “thee” happening place for the global financial service industry. It has opened up its economy for global investors. China is moving towards a service oriented growth from a manufacturing growth. Chinese moves economically or geopolitically is antagonizing USA and its NATO allies. Chinese reduction in US treasuries is just a way to safe guard its investment from the great American bully attitude. The Chinese Russia crude oil and natural gas pipeline is expected to be completed next year. China will pay Russia in non US dollar forms. The so called petro dollar concept will not be applicable to China. Retaliation action by the USA could result in some direct or indirect form of seizure of Chinese investment and/or investment by Chinese companies. China-Russia combined will be the next NATO. The current NATO has outlived its shelf life. In the process of finding the next NATO, gold will get the benefit. China is one of the biggest gold consumers as well as a producer. China is making all out efforts to ensure that gold prices are dictated from Shanghai and not from London or by US futures. I am a long term gold bull. I do not have any intention to change my view. Physical gold has to be a part of everyone’s investment portfolio. One should be happy as long as gold gives an annualized return of over eight percent. To me the threshold long term investment return for a safe haven like gold is eight percent. Global average retail inflation is also around eight percent. (I do not believe in investment in gold ETF and gold futures. These are just for short term trading and medium term investing.)


There are a lot of talk of buying gold in electronic form. Just remember that the state has the control on your gold if you buy gold and or any investment in electronic form. In the long term, the state can seize your gold/investment in electronic form. The so called “too big to fail” concept is applicable only for the elite. The common man is always crushed by the state. Physical gold is the only way for the common man to safe guard itself from the excesses by the state. Make lot of short term profit in bitcoin and equities but use a part of the profit to buy physical gold or land. In the long term only physical gold and land are the key true investment.


The Ghost of Bank of Japan’s taper moves will support gold and silver at lower prices. I am disappointed by silver’s inability to break key resistance of $1745. The trend after the European press conference around 7:20pm IST (GMT +5:30) will be the key for metals as well as global currency markets.


COMEX SILVER MARCH 2018 – current price $1705.00

Bullish over $1711.50 with $1724.50 and $1745.50 as price target

Bearish below $1702.20 with $1688.00-$1673.50 and $1658.20 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1702.20-$1711.50

·         Silver needs to trade over $1688.00 to rise to $1724.50 and $1745.50.

·         Sell off will be there below $1688.00 with $1658.20 as the key short term support.

MCX CRUDE OIL JANUARY 2018 – previous day close Rs.4036.

·         One hundred percent retracement is at 4115. In the short term only a break of 4115 will result in 4438.

·         The earlier resistance of 3935 is now the support. As long as crude oil trades over 3935 chances of a rise to 4115 and 4258 by tomorrow will be very high.

·         Bearish trend will be there only below 3935.

·         Those who are long in crude oil use a trailing stop loss below 3935.

·         Technically over brought. Momentum is very bullish.

(prices in Indian rupees above)


Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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