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Asian Metals Market Update: February-5-2018

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 5 February 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

The big question is if has gold topped out for the short term. Traders are expecting a March interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve after nonfarm payrolls. My 2018 analysis is based on four interest rate hikes this year. I expect gold price to rise despite four interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Only the pace of rise and pace of fall will not be as per trader expectation. Asian gold demand will be the key today. If there is lackluster Asian gold demand today, then gold can see more price correction.


Central banks are obsessed with rising stock markets. They will do everything to prevent global stock markets from moving into a short term bearish trend. Unless global stocks markets fall continuously for two successive weeks all sharp dips should be used to invest for the long term. Fundamentals come into play when stock markets plunge. Bond prices play a key price in determining short term currency trend of emerging markets like India. Bond prices will be the key to determine short term emergency market currency price trend for the rest of the year.


Outgoing Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said U.S. stocks and commercial real estate prices are elevated but stopped short of saying those markets are in a bubble. Safe havens like gold need to be a part of everyone’s portfolio. I prefer ten percent of long term savings to be invested in physical gold. This is a US Senate elections year. Republicans it seems are bent on hitting the axe on their own feet due to internal politics of not letting Trump work.  Pre-election moves in a global super power USA will increase nervousness in global financial markets and also increase gold investment demand. 


Focus will also shift to US-Russia relations. Traders have ignored the US-Russia tensions. Russia goes into elections next month. The USA along with NATO allies are trying all kinds of behind the scene moves to prevent Putin from getting another term as Russian president. One needs a close watch on developments related to president elections in Russia.


COMEX SILVER MARCH 2018 – current price $1665.00

Bullish over $1683.00 with $1718.50 and $1730.10 as price target

Bearish below $1663.00 with $1631.50 and $1612.90 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1663.00-$1683.00

·         The region between $1631.50 and $1663.00 is an anything can happen zone.

·         Short sellers trade very carefully despite the bearish trend as there can be sharp pullback rallies.

·         Rise/short covering will be there if silver manages to trade over $1683 today to $1718.40.

·         A daily close below $1660 today will be very bearish for the rest of the week.

MCX SILVER MARCH 2018 – previous day close Rs.38651.00

·         200 hundred day moving average is at 38989.

·         Silver needs to trade over 38989 today to be in bullish zone and rise to 39540 and 40026.

·         There will be sellers as long as silver trades below 38989 to 38327 and 37726.

·         I will prefer to use any 800-1000 fall (if any) to invest for end February with a stop loss below 36873.

(prices in Indian rupees above)


Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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