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Asian Metals Market Update: March-12-2018

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 12 March 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

Focus in on retaliation measures after Trump’s tariff. Traders have ignored the exceptional US February nonfarm payroll numbers. Global stock markets are expected to rise. Sentiment for the US dollar is still weak. Now the focus will be on the FOMC meet. The pace of interest rate hikes is the key and not the actual hike. An early Easter (in March) does have temporary economic implications.


I believe that copper, zinc, lead and nickel may have formed a short term bottom last week and are looking to rise. Industrial metals will fall only if they fall below last week’s low.


There will be long term political implications in Asia as China’s Xi is given unlimited term. China is the only nation that can counter the USA in Asia. I expect a short term war between India-China in the next few years. China also faces problems with radical Islam. Dealing with radical Islam will be a big challenge for Xi internally. This move is bullish for Chinese economic growth as Xi is a firm leader pushing for growth. Industrial metal demand in China is expected to rise. Chinese investment in US treasuries will also fall at a very slow pace. China will import more crude oil and natural gas from Russia as it gets a direct pipeline. (sea route dependency for energies gets reduced). Less payment for energies in US dollar (as China-Russia energy purchases will be more in non US dollar form). Per capita gold demand in China will also rise as Chinese income/savings starts to rise.


COMEX GOLD APRIL 2018 – current price $1323.50

Bullish over $1317.10 with $1338.60-$1346.30 as price target

Bearish below $1312.80 with $1309.40 and $1301.40 as price target.

  • Gold can move $25 either side from the current price of $1323.50.
  • Gold will zoom if it manages to break and trade over $1330.
  • Sellers will be there below $1317.

MCX CRUDE OIL 19TH March 2018 – previous day close Rs.4017

·         Short term view: Crude oil can rise to 4271and 4505 as long as it trades over 3870.

·         There is a mini double bottom at 3920. Further key medium term support is at 3870.

·         Crude oil will move into a short term bearish phase only below 3870.

·         Intraday view: Crude can rise to 4143 as long as it trades over 3967. Sellers will be there below 3967.

(prices in Indian rupees above).


Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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