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Asian Metals Market Update: May-10-2018

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Thursday, 10 May 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

Other than crude oil, none of the financial markets have reacted to Iran’s nuclear deal cancellation news. The Bank of England (BOE) meeting today can provide the impetus for a trend change in currency markets as well as precious metals. Sterling can rise just before the BOE meeting or just after the BOE meeting. However if sterling falls after the BOE meeting gold will also crash.


Right now gold is just being supported by higher crude oil prices. Fundamentals are weak. Gold ETF demand is stable. It is not rising. Gold jewelry demand in India will stop from Monday till 15th June due to two reasons (a) Ramzan/Ramadan starts from 15th May. Muslims buy gold towards the end of Ramzan or just after Ramzan Eid. (b) Hindu Marriage season stops for nearly a month from 13th May to around 10th June due to the inauspicious “Maal Maas”. One should use sharp dips till 15th June to invest for the year end and even next year.


In India physical gold premiums will rise as gold smuggling generally takes a hit during the Ramzan/Ramadan month. This is the trend I have seen over the past two decades. Smuggled gold still dictates physical gold premiums in India.


US Consumer price Index will have an impact only if it comes in much lower. Lower CPI will reduce chances of a June interest rate hike. Gold prices will be affected by CPI numbers.


COMEX GOLD JUNE 2018 – current price $1314.70

Bullish over $1311.30 with $1320.20 and $1326.50 as price target

Bearish below $1305.60 with $1301.90-$1296.70 as price target.

·           Gold needs to trade over the $1302-$1309 zone to rise to $1323 and $1336.

·           One needs to trade very carefully between the $1302-$1309 zone.

·           Gold can move $22 either side anytime from the current price.

MCX CRUDE OIL 21ST May. (previous day close Rs.4799)

·         Crude oil can rise to 4955 and 5097 in the short term as long as it trades over 4726.

·         Immediate resistance is at 4828. Crude oil zoom if it manages to trade over 4828.

·         A fall below 4626 will change the trend to bearish.

·         Overbought but momentum is very bullish. One needs to continuously look for signs of correction.

(prices in Indian rupee above)


Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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