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Asian Metals Market Update: May-16-2018

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Wednesday, 16 May 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

North Korean’s moving away from peace talks after hints of regime change moves by the Americans should limit the fall in gold and silver today. Long term investors will also be using the fall in gold and silver to start investing. American are known to press for regime change. North Koreans are rightly cautious. Our view: I never expected Americans to go for peace talks in the Korean peninsula. Selling arms and regime change is their business. Leaders come and go in the USA but there is policy continuity in the form of forced regime change and prevent peace in the region so that American arms industry flourish. Gold will ultimately benefit in the long term. Those who are writing off gold will eat their words soon. Interest rates cannot rise endless. Next year the pace of global interest rate hikes will be very slow in key nations.


Bullying and Protectionism is something Trump is using to nations to sing to his tune. Coercion with nations will work for a year or two. Thereafter nations getting coerced will find ways and means to get over the same. The US dollar will be the sole looser. Trump bullying of European nations is the nail in the coffin for the US dollar. European people are getting increasingly frustrated by the USA writing their nations policies. They are taking measures to reduce dependence on the USA for growth and supply of key technology. This is just a transition phase for European nations. Gold and crypto currencies have to rise as a result of the same.


Yesterday’s fall in gold and silver is line with fundamentals. So far there was zero demand whether physical or ETF or investment. I always believe that fundamentals are the key. These days most of the traders are either momentum traders or technical traders. Fundamental traders and investors are a rare breed.


COMEX SILVER JULY 2018 – current price $1626.00

Bullish over $1620.70 with $1648.70 and $1674.50 as price target

Bearish below $1603.90 with $1587.10 and $1532.70 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1603.90-$1620.70

       Silver is bearish as long as it trades below 100 day moving average of $1658.60.  

·         Hundred percent retracement is at $1603. Silver needs to trade over $1603 for the rest of the month to prevent a sell off.

·         Silver needs to trade over $1648 to change the trend to bullish.

MCX NICKEL MAY – previous day close Rs.985.40

·           Nickel needs to trade over 984.30 today to rise to 1021.20 and 1068.80.

·           Yesterday’s rise in Nickel was mainly due to a sharp weakness in the Indian rupee. If the rupee reverses trend today, then there can be a small sell off.

·           Support is at 973.90. Intraday bearish trend will be there below 973.90 to 945.20 and below.

(prices in Indian rupees above)


Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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