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Asian Metals Market Update: May-24-2018

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Thursday, 24 May 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

Trade wars are always bullish for gold and safe havens. There are also reports that US army has attacked Syrian army. Other than US interest rate hike, rest of the factors are bullish for gold. US June interest rate hike is more or less a done deal. At the beginning of the year, I had written that my bullish assumption of gold is based on four interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year. So far traders expect just one more interest rate hike after June by the Federal Reserve. Anything less than two interest rate hikes after June will knock down the US dollar and there will be a renewed frenzy to invest in gold. (I am not looking at interest rate trend of 2019. I prefer to live for this year.)


Natural gas will be the next big investment theme after Bitcoin. Every year people search for the big thing which can explode exponentially. Till 2011/2012, emerging market stocks, gold and silver were there, from 2012-2016 industrial metals like zinc, lead, nickel, cobalt saw price explosion, 2017 saw the advent of bitcoin and crypto currencies. I see natural gas as the next big explosive investment between now and end 2020. I expect natural gas prices rise three hundred percent to four hundred percent in the next thirty months. All the wars in Syria, Yemen and Iran is USA trying to control global natural gas price. I am sure Iran and Syria will be under the control of USA over the next thirty months. Russia intervention unless China intervenes in Middle East directly will be ineffective. America always sells goods at Mars prices and not earth price.


Monday, there is a holiday in USA. Traders will prefer to be long gold and silver rather short. Correction in crude oil will be part and parcel of a long term bull rally. If crude oil prices float over $70, then traders will be forced to go long on the weekend.


NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $71.70

Bullish over $72.30 with $73.30 and $74.60 as price target

Bearish below $71.20 with $70.60 and $69.90 as price target

·           Crude oil needs to trade over $71.60 to rise to $73.80.

·           Sellers will be there below $71.60.

·           Better to remain on the sidelines today.

COMEX COPPER JULY 2018 – current price $306.80

Bullish over $303.90 with $309.00 and $314.30 as price target

Bearish below $299.90 with $296.80 and $294.20 as price target

        Back to square one as copper needs to trade over $299-$302 zone to rise to 313.

·           Sell off will be there below $299.

·           Better to remain on the sidelines today.


Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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