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Asian Metals Market Update: June 14 2018

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Thursday, 14 June 2018 | Print  | Disqus 


The FOMC has indicated of two more interest rate hikes after yesterday’s. This is in line with our expectations. Fundamentals are still bearish for gold. Unless Asian physical demand picks up, chances of a correction will be very high.


Federal Reserve chairman Powell’s press conference:

·         Fed doesn't want to hike interest rates too quickly or too slowly

·         Fed will hold press conferences after every meeting starting in January

·         Economy is 'doing very well'

·         Oil prices will likely push inflation above 2% target, but increase should be 'transitory'

·         Downplays projection of four interest rate hikes this year, saying expectations did not change much

·         Balance sheet shrinking is going smoothly

·         Tweak of IOER rate has 'no bearing' on future path of short-term interest rates

·         Backs 2% inflation target policy framework, saying hurdles to change it would be high

·         Data show no negative impact on economy from trade disputes

·         Lots of uncertainty about fiscal policy

·         Long-term unemployment rate may be lower than 4.5%


Our view on the above: (1) The European Union, the Chinese and Canada have not yet started significant counter sanctions on US goods and US corporations. The negative effect on certain US corporations will be felt in the coming months and not now. (2) Nymex crude oil up to $80 will not shake US economic growth. It will only affect emerging market nations and emerging market currencies. The US economy will slow down if nymex crude oil trades over $80 for a few months. Crude oil has a lagging affect on consumer spending and business spending. (3) The sentence “Fed doesn't want to hike interest rates too quickly or too slowly” is a matter of perception. There is no definition of the same. As long as US nonfarm payrolls continue to average over 160,000 jobs every month, chances of two more interest rate hikes (by December) by the Federal reserve is almost certain.


The European central bank needs to be clear on monetary squeezing measures for next year. Any delay by the ECB on this part will result in the euro/usd falling around 1.1200 against the US dollar in the short term.


Geopolitics & Trump trade wars

There are a lot of geopolitical distractions which will support gold in the event of a crash. US troop build up on Russia’s eastern borders needs to be closely watched. America likes to keep its army at all times.


The Trump administration has said that it will impose trade tariffs on Chinese goods by Friday. The Chinese have already prepared a list of counter sanctions. Gold could remain firm till the US does not impose trade tariffs on Friday.


COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2018 – current price $1302.80

Bullish over $1293.10 with $1309.50 and $1317.70 as price target.

Bearish below $1288.60 with $1282.20 and $1277.60 as price target.

·           Gold needs to trade over $1296 today to try and rise to $1317.70.

·           Sellers will be there below $1296.

·           Crash will be there if gold does not break and trade over $1309.50.

·           Please note that the above view is purely an intraday view.

MCX GOLD AUGUST 2018 – previous day close Rs.31143

·         Gold can rise to 31403 as long as it trades over 31028.

·         Gold will crash only below 31028.

·         Trend is neutral right now. Gold can move 300 either side anytime.

·         Low risk traders buy gold only if it trades over 31335 after the European central bank press conference around 6:30pm Indian Time.

·         Direction of the Indian rupee (usd/inr) will be a major mover for MCX gold futures.

(Prices in Indian rupees above)

COMEX COPPER JULY 2018 – current price $325.40

Bullish over $320.10 with $330.40 and $334.60 as price target

Bearish below $318.30 with $315.80 and $312.90 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $318.30-$320.10

        Copper can rise to $334.60 as long as it trades over $320.10.

·           Copper will crash only below $320.10.

·           One way prices moves in copper will be big.


Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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