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Asian Metals Market Update: July 10 2018

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Tuesday, 10 July 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

Political developments in the UK and the NATO summit will affect currencies as well as metals and energies. If gold and silver fall today, then physical buyers will be absent as they will be waiting for more correction. Today and tomorrow are crucial days for gold, silver and copper. They need to float over current prices to rise further. Sharp short-term corrections (if any) in gold and silver should be used to invest for the long term.


I do not foresee exceptional physical gold demand in Asia. Asian currencies need to gain against the US dollar so that there is a real gold price fall. Gold prices have fallen in Asia but a currency weakness has taken away most of the gains. Asians should start investing in gold on any five percent fall.


Industrial metals if they fall today and tomorrow will fall another five percent. I will prefer to remain on the sidelines. Zinc and lead are on the edge of key technical support. Either they trade over current price or else they sell off. Nickel and copper are above key retracement levels and are looking bullish at the moment.


Overall I am bullish on gold and silver. Buyers and investors need not panic on corrections as it will be short lived.


Economics & Trump trade wars

Foreigners continue to invest in Chinese bond markets despite the Trump induced trade wars. A large Chinese population and focus on reducing imports will mitigate (too a certain extent) the downside affects of the trade war. The great Indian Hindu festival season will begin from mid-August to mid-November. India’s imports from China will also help china reduce the Trump induced trade wars. I am not worried about Chinese growth. Mild slow downs are a part when any nation focusses more internally and less externally.


Global inflation should beat most the central banks threshold limits. Gold always rises in an inflationary environment. The pace of rise of gold will be slow. But physical gold has to a be a part of everyone’s investment portfolio.


Germany’s economic growth has beaten street expectation. The Euro will fall against the US dollar whenever there is focus away from Germany and France.


COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2018 – current price $1259.80

Bullish over $1256.10 with $1266.90 and $1274.30 as price target

Bearish below $1252.20 with $1248.10 and $1241.90 as price target.

Neutral Zone between: $1252.20-$1256.10

·           Gold needs to trade over 1263.10 today to rise to $1274.30.

·           Chances of correction to $1244.10 will be high as long as gold does not break and trade over $1263.10.

·           Remain on the sidelines today.

·           Please note that the above view is purely an intraday view.

MCX GOLD AUGUST 2018 – previous day close Rs.30617

·         100 day moving average at 30844 is the key resistance.

·         Only a break of 30844 will trigger a rise to 31036 and 31135.

·         Sellers will be there if gold (a) does not break 100 day MA of 30844 (b) Gold trades below the immediate support of 30562.

·         Correction upto 30500 are a part and parcel of the recovery rally.

·         Intraday bearish trend will be there only below 30500.

(prices in Indian rupees above)


Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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