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Asian Metals Market Update: Sep 6 2018

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Thursday, 6 September 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

Silver is still a great investment for a period of three years or more. But nobody has the patience to wait for three years.


Supply fears from Iran and Venezuela have resulted in firm crude oil. Asian demand is the key to the crude oil price and not American demand. The per capita consumption of crude oil is much lower in Asia than the USA. But the population in Asia is more than double of the USA. The weakness in currency prices in Asia and the subsequent fallout in the form of a sharp rise in the cost of living, lower demand, higher interest rates and higher inflation will result in a sharp decline in Asian crude oil consumption over the next few months. Even American exports to Asia will be affected. Crude oil demand fundamentals are very weak for the rest of the year. The rise in crude oil’s price is just manipulation by a state controlled mafia and nothing else. Fair value of Nymex crude oil should be less than $55.


Economics & Trump trade wars

The Euro and pound rose sharply on positive news on Brexit. A deal will be near between the European Union and the UK. Trump and his trade tariffs will increase the cost of living of average Americans. Inflation will rise in the USA. If the Federal Reserve links interest rates to inflation, then there will be three more interest rate hikes between now and March 2019. You give tax payers money in the form of a tax cut and you take away money from the tax payers under the garb of protecting domestic industries. Americans who are spending too much and saving less will move once again into the debt conundrum. Trump is creating an American growth bubble for the next year. Remember that there cannot be unlimited tax cuts by the state.


US challenger job numbers and US private ADP job numbers will be the key. These numbers have to beat street expectation to prevent a US dollar sell off.


COMEX SILVER DECEMBER 2018 – current price $1424.50

Bullish over $1402.00 with $1450.50 and $1476.00 as price target

Bearish below $1390.50 with $1375.50 and $1362.50 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1390.00-$1402.00

·         Silver can rise to $1476 as long as it trades over $1402.

·         There will be a quick rise if silver manages to trade over $1431.

·         Crash will be there below $1402.

US DOLLAR-INDIAN RUPEE – current price Rs.71.7550.

Everyone wants to know where the Indian rupee is headed. There is a large pool of unhedged exposure of foreign exchange loans and advances by Indian corporates. Those corporates that have loans linked to currency options have taken a quite a big hit. Momentum is very bullish for the Indian rupee. Technically oversold. There will be panic by corporates if the rupee floats over 72.00 against the US dollar a long period of time. I would not have been worried if it was not September. (half yearly financial year close). The Rupee can change the rising momentum anytime. I just hope that cheap Chinese imports are reduced due to a weaker rupee as it helps small scale domestic manufacturing industries.

Most of the exporters have already sold off if the forward market. There is also cancellation demand by exporters.

·           In my view another set of option triggers will be there only on a break of 72.4650.

·           The Rupee can fall to 71.3350 and 70.7700 anytime as long as 72.4650 is not broken.

·           Sky will be the limit if 72.4650 is broken anytime in September.

(the above is a short term view and not an intraday view).


Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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