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Asian Metals Market Update: Sep 10 2018



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 10 September 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

Trump wants more and more trade tariffs on China. In short he does not want US companies to import anything from China. Inflation in the USA will rise in September and for the rest of the year if Trump continues tariff slamming on China. Trump says that Japan and India will accept his terms of trade. India and Japan have no options as they have to placate the USA to stop China from its land grabbing and sea grabbing policy.

Everyone is cheering US August nonfarm payrolls. I am not. June and July numbers were revised lower below growth levels. To me the threshold is 160,000 NFP jobs. Wage rate growth is peanuts and will not cover trade tariff induced inflation over the coming months.

Trump and his team believe that they can destabilize the Chinese political system. By imposing more and more tariffs, there will be a slowdown in Chinese economic growth which could lead to mass unease. Mass unease will result in Chinese bowing to the whim and fancies of the USA. Trump and his team got it wrong. China is actively diversifying exports to Africa and all over the world except North America. There will be a mild slowdown. There will be layoffs in China. These layoffs will get over after a few months. From January Chinese exports and hiring numbers will rise.

Whatever we buy from Amazon basically is made in China. In fact whatever I buy in India, I first look in Amazon basic as quality is best. Even my keyboard and mouse is of Amazon basic. The cost of products of Amazon basic will rise in the USA. Amazon will not be able to absorb the cost due to higher tariffs. In fact every shop in the USA and etailer in the USA has mass selling items sourced from China. The common man will suffer due to Trump’s trade tariff. Even new lower taxes will not offset the rise in the cost of living. The Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates every quarter for the next year.

Gold can initially fall as the US dollar gains on the back of continued safe haven. In the long run I see a crash in currencies. Investors are losing faith in currencies and treasuries. Central banks are buying and selling their treasuries among themselves. I see world trade in a state of total chaos after the first quarter of next year if Trump tariff slamming continues. Gold is the only hedge.

Industrial metals can see sell off as they are fundamentally weak. Putin is in Tehran to meet leaders of Iran and Turkey. A trade axis and a political front between Russia-China-Turkey and Iran will be a bombshell for NATO. The so called trade sanctions and alienation will not work with this group. This group has massive gold reserves in their central banks. The US dollar is being dumped aggressively by this group in their trade.

Long term investors buy gold and silver and keep on adding more on any ten percent dip. Day traders, jobbers and short term traders remain on the sidelines and do not hesitate to sell first and buy next if selling momentum builds.

COMEX SILVER DECEMBER 2018 – current price $1414.00

Bullish over $1430.00 with $1450.50 and $1476.00 as price target

Bearish below $1416.50 with $1402.00 and $1377.00 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1416.50-$1430.00

·         The region between $1390-$1402-$1409 is anything can happen zone.

·         Trend is slightly bearish at the moment.

·         Silver needs to trade over $1430 firmly to rise.

·         Crash will be there if silver trades below $1409 after London opens.

MCX Crude oil 19th September 18: (previous day close/CMP Rs.4883.00)

Bullish over 4840 with 4952 and 5021 as price target.

Bearish below 4814 with 4745 and 4692 price target.

Neutral Zone: 4814-4840

One Support: 4840

One Resistance: 4926

·         Crash will be there below 4854 to 4816 and 4766.

·         Crude oil needs to trade over 4900 to rise further.

(Price are in Indian rupees above. The above is an intraday view.)

 

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

Follow us on Twitter @insigniaconsul1

All price above are in US dollars, unless otherwise specified.

Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT

Current Market Price (CMP)

UK session starts around 1:00 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

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