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Asian Metals Market Update: Jan 7 2019

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 7 January 2019 | Print  | Disqus 

Brexit news will be the key in January. Any postponement or new conditions will result in the cable seeing a sell off against the US dollar. Gold will benefit if there is uncertainty on brexit. Japan’s prime minister Abe says that Japan is watchful of risks to the global economic recovery. In fact every nation is watchful. This is the one reason that Asia policy makers have not given a clear indication of an interest rate cut either this month or next month.


Federal Chairman’s comments after NFP

·         Not worried about too high inflation from wage growth in December.

·         Data generally strong going into 2019.

·         U.S. economic data seem on track to sustain 'good momentum' into 2019.

·         Chinese economy should continue to grow this year.

·         Fed will be 'patient' to see how the economy evolves given conflicting signals from market and data.

·         Markets are pricing in downside risks and are well ahead of the data.


Our view: Unknown is the impact of the Federal government shutdown on the US economy. This will be short lived but can still sway momentum. Those who are thinking of no interest rate hikes this year (by the Federal Reserve) will need to change their view. Two interest rate hikes every six months are still possible. The probability of a March interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is above zero now. If US economic data releases in January beat street expectations, then bets on a March interest rate hike will increase with the passing of each week.


Crude oil

Last week’s rise in crude oil was partially due to profit taking in short positions as traders returned from New Year vacations. In my view, crude oil has formed a long term bottom as it has not fallen below $41. BUT there can be small correction this week before the next wave rise to the $56-$58 zone by the end of January. The only risk to higher crude oil prices is failure in USA-China trade talks. Fundamentally crude will go through a cyclical period of low demand in Asia till early March.


COMEX SILVER MARCH 2019 – current price $1582.80

Bullish over $1570.00 with $1610.00 and $1635.00 as price target

Bearish below $1548.50 with $1530.50 and $1510.50 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1548.50-$1570.00

·         Silver needs to break and trade over $1590 to rise to $1610 and $1635.

·         Small sell off will be there below $1574.

·         Crash will be there below $1555.

MCX Nickel January 2019: (previous day close/CMP Rs.773.10):

·         Nickel may have formed a medium term bottom last week at 735.20.

·         Bullish case: Nickel can rise to 794.10 and 856.30 this week as long as it trades over 735.20. 

·         Bearish case: Crash will be there if nickel does not break 794.10 this week.

·         View: Nickel has already fallen much more than its industrial metal peers. It is time for Nickel to rise. Use sharp dips to invest for the end of January with a stop loss below 698.70.

(prices are Indian rupees above)


Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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