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Asian Metals Market Update: March-6-2019



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Wednesday, 6 March 2019 | Print  | Disqus 

It could be the beginning of the global “currency war” after the so called the end of the “trade war”. The reason is in the paragraph below. Indirectly nations fight currency war day in and day out. Trump is making it open. Currency war induced by Trump will only speed up the decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar. Trump is the US president for less than two years. By then nations will have completed their own hedges against the US dollar and over reliance on US exports and US imports for growth. Even if Trump gets reelected as US president for a second term in 2021, then also his bullying power will not be the same which he has on date. Global US dollar dumping spree will increase from next year. Short term gains and long-term pains for the greenback. I expect crypto currencies to gain popularity and act as replacement to the US dollar (apart from gold). These cryptos will be backed by central banks.

 

Yen and US currency showdown looming?

The U.S. says it wants a currency clause in any trade agreement with Japan. Japanese officials say there is no need to talk about currencies. Masatsugu Asakawa, the nation’s currency chief, has indicated opposition to a currency clause, saying recently that the link between the yen’s exchange rate and Japanese exports has been "severed." the U.S. got a currency clause in its revamped trade deal with Canada and Mexico and is said to be seeking one from China now. From the U.S. point of view, Japan is nextA currency clause could tie the BOJ’s hands, preventing it from taking action that might weaken the yen, even indirectly. Our View: This is an indirect trade war. Japan will take measures to reduce dependence on US exports. It will offer sweeter terms of trade to China, Asian nations and Africa. Bank of Japan could also increase its gold reserves. Remember what will happen if Japan also starts reducing its investment in US treasuries. Short term gold can fall. Long term gold is currency.

 

Big data starts from today with US February private ADP jobs today, European central bank meeting tomorrow and US February nonfarm payrolls tomorrow. Difficult to predict the trade reaction. Gold needs to trade over $1250-$1260 zone for the rest of March to be in long term bullish zone.

 

COMEX GOLD APRIL 2019 – current price $1288.15

Bullish over $1293.30 with $1303.30 and $1311.30 as price target

Bearish below $1280.80 with $1275.00 and $1260.00 as price target.

·         Crash to $1260 will be there if gold trades below $1278-$1282 zone.

·         Gold needs to trade over $1290-$1294 zone to rise further.

HAPPY PROFITABLE TRADING

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

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 -- Published: Wednesday, 6 March 2019 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

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