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Asian Metals Market Update: May-24-2019

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Friday, 24 May 2019 | Print  | Disqus 

I continue to see an inverse correlation between gold and crude oil today. Monday US markets are closed. Look for signs profit booking in short crude oil positions. Silver continues to remain undervalued. Copper is in a neutral zone. There will be investment demand on dips now that gold prices have reversed from the lows. There is no limit to the extent where trade war is headed. If China starts retaliation in a big way the n there will be havoc globally. Gold has to rise. Day traders and short term traders need to trade very carefully. Long term gold is out and out and invest. Go and start investing in gold at current prices and on every five percent dip. However gold investment should not exceed twenty percent on your investment portfolio.


My view and Indian stock investment strategy after re-election of BJP/NDA


The BJP has come a long way in Indian politics from a failed “India Shining” campaign fifteen years ago to super success “Chowkidaar” campaign in 2019. Yes as person I have voted for the BJP since I been eligible to vote. I was even a member of the ABVP (BJP’s student wing) during my college days. But I have been a vocal critic of some of Modiji’s policies like crooked implementation of GST and the hardships faced by small and tiny business due to GST. Demonetization was done in haste and sham. Even Modiji’s government was not able to prevent or reduce farmer suicide nor were middle men reduced to increase farmer’s income.


I prefer banking and NBFC. The reason is that in the next five years NDA government will ensure that banks and NBFC get rid of non-performing assets (NPA). I will prefer defence both state run as well as private. I see greater emphasis on defence indigenization. These sector are all beaten up. I will also prefer to invest in selected real estate stocks. If Indian economy rises then real estate demand and real estate prices will rise. Real estate stocks are beaten badly. FMCG and selected pharma are ever green. Last I will prefer to invest in companies who are more dependent on domestic demand and have least imports.


I do foresee a broad based rally in Indian stocks. The next rally in Indian stocks will be by mid caps and small caps. Global trade war risk are there. However by proper new policies India can see a sustained stock market rally and defy global risk. In the short term chances of correction will be very high whenever focus shifts away to global factors.


As far as the rupee is concerned against the US dollar, it will be very volatile. I see it trading it in a wider trading range between 63-69-74. Risk to overshooting over 74 against the US dollar is global recession fears and/or sharp rise energy prices. Foreign investors will pour in more and more investment in India now that a strong mandate is given by the people of India. Domestic risk include retail inflation getting out of control. RBI intervention will be sporadic to prevent excess volatility. RBI will also ensure that usd/inr does not overshoot or undershoot valuation under Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) and Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER). Bond market inflows and outflows impacts short term trend of the rupee more than FII flows in Indian stocks. Bond market flows in India will be volatile and unpredictable.


If Modiji is able to increase farmer income and rural income in a sustained way, then I see atleast twenty five percent rise in Indian gold demand at the end of 2022.


COMEX GOLD JUNE 2019 – current price $1282.25

·         Gold gets another chance to rise to $1300 and $1310 as long as it trades over $1270-$1275 zone.

·         Small sell off will be there below $1277.10.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (JUNE 2019)  - current price $58.44

·         Key support between $56.50-$57.50.

·         Crude oil needs to trade over $56.50-$57.50 zone to rise to $60.10 and $62.0.

·         Look for short covering.

·         However a daily close below $59.80 today and open below $59.80 in Singapore time will be very bearish for crude oil for next week.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Website Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Insignia Consultants does not have any branches in India.

Insignia Consultants does not have any marketing agents in any city in India.



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