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Asian Metals Market Update: May-28-2019

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Tuesday, 28 May 2019 | Print  | Disqus 

Gold will break free from $1270-$1298 range and form a new range anytime soon. Silver needs to trade over $1419 to be in long term bullish zone. Crude oil needs to trade over $57.00 to rise to $63.00 this week. Apprehensions that an all out global trade war will reduce demand for crude oil has resulted in the fall. Crude oil is just a speculative play. Supply pressures from Venezuela, Iran and Libya are still there.  Not much major economic data releases till Thursday. Just trade in the technical. Prepare yourself for a big next week US May nonfarm payrolls and June FOMC. Ignore the trade war.


India: Second phase of gold reforms on govt's priority list, revamped GMS on cards



The second phase of gold reforms is on the government’s priority list and an action plan, prepared by the economic affairs department and commerce ministry officials while the country was in election mode, will soon be announced. The measures include a revamped gold monetisation scheme (GMS), treating gold as an asset class, setting up the gold board as regulator, and forming a domestic gold council as the policy advisory body, said sources.


The Budget session of Parliament is likely to discuss the gold board. A Bill for the Precious Metals Board of India Act, 2019, is ready and after the new Cabinet’s approval, it will be introduced in Parliament. The board has already started basic functioning under the finance ministry but its operations are not yet formalised. The gold board will be set up in line with regulators such as Sebi or the Forward Markets Commission, which was later merged with Sebi. According to sources, once the Precious Metals Board starts functioning, it will work on norms for a gold spot exchange, which will ensure that any gold trade above 5 gm goes through the online exchange for transparency and to track the end user.


Along with the Bureau of Indian Standards, it will finalise good delivery norms, making gold refined in India acceptable globally.The government is also considering making gold as an asset class, a source said. As on now, sovereign gold bonds are also an asset but when gold formally becomes an asset class, one can invest in it and on maturity, investors will receive the precious metal. For this, banks and financial intermediaries will be asked to open gold metal accounts.


Our View: In short (a) The government wants household in India to deposit gold and earn interest on gold. This in turn will reduce Indian gold imports. My advise to people of India is not to get lured by any government scheme that will ask you to deposit gold and earn interest. Later all the schemes will be taxable under various acts like Wealth Tax, Income tax and GST. There can be even harassment by tax officials over the source of your gold deposited even though the same could inherited by you. It will be nothing but a “Gold demonetization scheme”. (b) Government wants to track the end buyer of every gold sold over five grams. Gold gifted by you to anyone could be subject to provisions under the Gift tax act. Various clubbing provisions under the Income tax could also be applied to you. (c) Tracking of new gold purchases over 5 grams prevents conversion of black money into gold and nothing else. (d) Gold smuggling will increase in India. Smuggled gold will command a premium over current prices as black money will be used to invest in smuggled gold.


COMEX GOLD JUNE 2019 – current price $1283.95

·         If gold falls today then chances of $1272 and $1266 will be very high.

·         Remain on the sidelines.

·         Gold can move $15 either side from $1280.

MCX Silver July 2019:  (previous day close/CMP Rs.36449)

·         Weekly resistance is at 36808.

·         Only a break of 36808 will trigger another wave of rise to 37217 and 37431.

·         On the lower side as long as silver trades over 35864, downside risk will be limited.

·         Another wave of sell off will be there below 35864 or in case 36904 is not broken this week.

(Prices in Indian rupees above)

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Website Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Insignia Consultants does not have any branches in India.

Insignia Consultants does not have any marketing agents in any city in India.



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