-- Published: Tuesday, 18 June 2019 | Print | Disqus
There can be big one way moves in gold and silver anytime. Short term traders and investors are on the sidelines. Gold short sellers are waiting for an opportunity. It remains to be seen if they fail this week. Cautious optimism in gold for now. Physical buyers of gold will be on the sidelines.
In the next three weeks, there are various risk. (a) 18th June and 19th June is the FOMC. (b) 28th June and 29th June is the G20 meeting in Tokyo. Trump will meet his Chinese counterpart to try and force a trade deal. It is remains to be seen how much Chinese stoop as Trump will remain firm in his demands. (c) 5th July is the US June private nonfarm payrolls. 4th July is a holiday on US Independence day.
The above days are the risk which can drag down or crash land gold and silver. (1) FOMC is neutral on interest rate and/or ignores interest rate cut view giving an impression that interest rate cut will not happen in the in the third quarter, then gold will fall and US dollar Index will zoom. (2) A US-China trade deal will be catastrophic for gold bulls. Depending on the terms of the deal, gold prices can fall back to $1300 and below. (3) A US June nonfarm payrolls over 225,000 along with upward revision of May NFP can also result in sharp correction to gold prices. (However I am personally bullish on gold price.)
Monsoon has been delayed in India. A drought like situation is there in India. A bad monsoon will be bad for Indian gold demand. Rural gold will be less due to bad monsoon. Higher food price inflation due to a bad monsoon will reduce savings of the urban masses. As it India is experiencing a jobless growth. There is just hope that Modi 2.0 will start taking employment measures. Most in India expect higher income tax limits and a slew of other measure to boost consumption and growth. Implementation will be the key. Gold demand in India will be affected by monsoon progress and state measures to spruce employment.
Now to some geopolitics. The oil tanker attack off the gulf of Oman is in my view a media propaganda war for a future armed conflict with Iran. America’s creation Israel wants a war with Iran. Gold prices will continue its medium term bull run as a result of Iran. Rest of the geopolitical risk will not influence gold.
Crude oil will be very volatile. Copper will zoom on slightest indication of a possible trade deal between USA and China. Trade war news or no news will affect prices of industrial metals.
COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2019 – current price $1345.30
Bullish over $1337.10 with $1353.00 and $1369.00 as price target
Bearish below $1331.30 with $1323.90 and $1317.60 as price target.
· Gold needs to trade over $1336-$1341 zone to rise to $1353 and $1363.
· Crash will be there if gold does not break $1350-$1355 zone today.
· Day traders remain on the sidelines.
MCX Gold August 2019: (previous day close/CMP Rs.33021)
· Intraday view: Gold needs to trade over 32950-33050 zone to rise to 33200 and 33400. Crash will be there if gold trades below 32950.
· Till Thursday MCX Gold August needs to trade over 32750 to be in bullish zone and try and target 33650 and more. Crash or sell off will be there if gold trades below 32750.
(prices are in Indian rupees above)
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-- Published: Tuesday, 18 June 2019 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com