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Asian Metals Market Update: November-26-2019

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Tuesday, 26 November 2019 | Print  | Disqus 

If gold and silver fall today, they will crash. Inverse correlation between gold and crude oil will be there. I will prefer to call the current softer prices in gold and silver as just a correction and not even a short term bearish trend. Trend on or after second week of December will be the key not just for bullion but for currencies as well.

Central banks from Europe have started increasing their gold reserves. Poland has repatriated hundred tonnes of gold from the bank of England. The gold holdings in German Stock exchange in Frankfurt has exceeded the two hundred tonne for the first time. Every central banks is now trying to reduce its dependence on US dollar for trade and simultaneously increasing their gold reserves. Long term factors are all bullish for gold and silver. Do not ignore silver. Silver is still undervalued.

Bullish US economy views by the Federal Reserve chairman: Monetary policy is “well positioned” to support the strong labor market, which is just now starting to benefit workers on the margins, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said yesterday. Powell said Fed officials have a favorable outlook for the U.S. economy founded on strong consumer spending, which is bolstered by a robust job market, increasing incomes and solid consumer confidence. Still, he said weak global growth and trade uncertainty are holding back growth and that policymakers will “respond accordingly” if economic data leads to a “material reassessment” of their economic outlook.  Our view, impact on gold and silver: Short term correction followed by a rise to $2000 in the long term.

China’s Global Times, a tabloid run by the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily, said on its Twitter feed the two countries are very close to a “phase one” trade deal, discounting “negative” media reports. Our View: Gold and silver can fall or trade with a softer bias for a few days to a week. Next week’s various US jobs numbers will be the key.

There is no key US economic data release today. It will be a technical trade.


COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2019 – current price $1453.50

Bullish over $1452.20 with $1463.60 and $1477.90 as price target

Bearish below $1447.10 with $1438.50 and $1430.60 as price target

·         Gold needs to trade over $1446-$1452 zone to rise to $1477.

·         Sellers will be there below $1452 and crash below $1446.

·         There can be very sharp two way moves.

·         If gold falls today and tomorrow, then it will crash to $1440 and $1428.

COMEX SILVER DECEMBER 2019 – current price $1683.50

Bullish over $1673.00 with $1707.00 and $1737.50 as price target

Bearish below $1660.00 with $1647 and $1622 as price target

·         Silver needs to trade over $1670 to rise to $1707 and $1723.

·         Crash or sell off will be there if silver trades below $1670 to $1647 and $1619.

·         Remain on the sidelines.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (SEPTEMBER 2019)  - current price $58.01

Bullish over $57.50 with $59.70 and $61.30 as price target

Bearish below $56.80 with $55.60 and $54.80 as price target

·         Crude can rise to $59.00 and $60.30 as long as it trades over $57.50.

·         Sellers will be there below $57.50.

COMEX COPPER DECEMBER 2019 – current price $264.65

Bullish over $262.20 with $267.40 and $270.60 as price target

Bearish below $260.80 with $259.60 and $253.10 as price target

·         Copper needs to trade over $262.20 to rise to $270.60 and $272.50.

·         Crash will be there below $262.20.

·         Any kind of trade deal between USA-China can result in short covering in copper and a quick rise.

·         Be prepared for ten percent one way price move in copper, anytime in the next three weeks.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Insignia Consultants does not have any branches in India.

Insignia Consultants does not have any marketing agents in any city in India.



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