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Asian Metals Market Update: Dec-16-2019

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 16 December 2019 | Print  | Disqus 

Global political weather is such that financial markets will not sleep during Christmas and New Year weeks. Do not sleep in the next three weeks on your short term investment. Still anything can happen. If you are on a vacation or plan to go on a vacation for the next three weeks, then close very short term open positions in any future and options and ETF. If you are holding physical gold, any physical metal or deliverable stocks, then hold onto the same. Vacations are for relaxing and not for looking at own investments.

The politics behind trade deal: “Eik teer se doo nishane” This is a hindi proverb which means that with one arrow of a trade deal with China, Trump has achieved two political goals. How? (1) Trade deal will result in China buying massive amounts of US farm produce. China will also prevent copying of products of American technology companies. Farmers are Trump’s biggest supporters. (2) Crude oil prices will not fall or continue to rise till the next US elections. Firm crude oil prices will support US Shale oil producing companies. American energy companies are the biggest political donors of Trump’s Republican Party. Higher crude oil prices will also support Saudi Arabia’s Aramco which can result in greater support for American interest in the Middle East and North Africa region. So the trade deal is a win-win for Trump and not for China.

I am not sure whether global economy is ready for rising energy prices next year. Economic fundamentals are still bearish for most Asian nations. There is just hope that the worst will be behind in 2019 for global economy. We need to remember that there is difference between hope and actuals. The pace of rise of crude oil will be the key to global economy in 2020.

Trump and his impeachment related news will be the key. Remain on the sidelines till tomorrow.

COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2020 – current price $1479.20

Bullish over $1477.30 with $1488.40 and $1496.30 as price target

Bearish below $1472.40 with $1467.80 and $1456.40 as price target

·         Gold needs to trade over $1468-$1473 zone to rise to $1490 and $1500.

·         Crash if gold falls below $1468 today OR does not break $1490.10 by tomorrow.

·         Trend is neutral at the moment.

MCX Crude oil 17th January 2020: (previous day close/CMP Rs.4233.00)

·        Key long term resistance is at 4322. A break of 4322 will result in 4402-4555.

·        Overall trend is bullish as long as copper trades over 4052.

·        Crude oil will zoom to 4402 by Wednesday if it manages to trade over 4228.

·        Watch 4228 all the time.

(prices are in Indian rupees above. The above is a part of the weekly mcx report).


Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Insignia Consultants does not have any branches in India.

Insignia Consultants does not have any marketing agents in any city in India.



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