-- Published: Wednesday, 1 April 2020 | Print | Disqus
Reduction or normalization in gap between spot gold and Comex gold June futures is the prime reason for gold price to fall. Delivery uncertainties are over the immediate term. I expect physical gold to be in short supply this quarter.
USA, UK and Europe are in a pathetic state of corona virus. India will soon become a largest home of corona virus, thanks to a Muslim congregation where hundreds of Indonesian preachers had come and transmitted the COVID. I am very confident that corona virus cases in India will not top out by 14th April. However India cannot afford a lock down beyond 14th April. There are two options for India (a) Enforce a lockdown beyond 14th April and stop corona virus spread BUT let people die to hunger or lack of income. (b) Open factories and be normal and let people die to corona virus. India has to be choose between the devil and the deep sea. Either way, there will be a loss of human capital and breakdown of the paramedics. Indian rupee will weaken.
In Asia, I will be more worried on the transmission of COVID in the Ramadan/Ramzan period between 25th April and end June. Muslims/Islamic people are staunch and will never miss their Azaan prayers irrespective of the cost. I just hope that COVID comes to a halt by 25th April in Asia. Asian currencies (other than Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen) will weaken fifteen percent this quarter if COVID spreads beyond 25th April. Gold price will rise to $2250 by end June if the COVID makes menance after early May.
Some long term planning to be done after looking at day to day news. Trade war is not yet over. The U.S. Commerce Department said yestrday that it had launched trade investigations into imports of common alloy aluminium sheet from 18 countries, including Germany, Oman and Bahrain.
I am also bullish on copper and all industrial metals till end June. However I will prefer to wait till 7th April and decide on the investment strategy
COMEX SILVER MAY 2020 – current price $1419.30
· Silver needs to trade over $1380-$1410 zone to rise to $1460 and $1520.
· Sellers will be there if silver trades below $1400 and crash below $1370.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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-- Published: Wednesday, 1 April 2020 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com