LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but not Stocks
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

Market Bides Time Ahead of More Fed Twaddle
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold waiting for FOMC tomorrow
By: Ira Epstein

Asian Metals Market Update: March-19-2019
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Keynes Was a Vicious Bastard
By: Keith Weiner, Monetary Metals

SWOT Analysis: Goldcorp Chairman Ian Telferís $12 Million Retirement
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Gold and Silver Are Feeling Frisky
By: Dave Kranzler

Is The Stock Market Finally Topping?
By: Avi Gilburt

Why This Rally Smells Funny
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Technical Scoop: March-17-2019 -- Markets, Precious Metals & More
By: David Chapman

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Turkey's Position on ISIL Misunderstood

By: John Browne
Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.

 -- Published: Monday, 20 October 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

As territory in the Middle East falls under control of the brutal fanatics of ISIL, many Americans may be wondering how this could happen in the backyard of major U.S. allies. In particular, frustration with Turkey's reluctance to move against ISIL, even as it massacres civilians and creates instability on the Turkish border, is growing rapidly. Turkey's political calculation with respect to the crisis reveals just how complex and intractable the crisis may become. 

Located between Europe and Asia, Turkey was once the epicenter of the vast Ottoman Empire that controlled much of the Middle East and even portions of the Balkans. After the First World War, with Turkey stripped of her empire, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk attempted to realign the non-Arab nation away from the rest of the Muslim world in favor of the West. This was a gigantic task, probably never attempted previously by any nation in history.

Following WWII, Turkey, with its location adjacent to Russia's soft underbelly, became a valuable NATO member. Despite its unquestioned loyalty, the European Union (EU) denied repeatedly Turkey's subsequent applications for membership. (The official reason for rejection was human rights: the real reason was the persistence of strong Islamic affiliation of its conservative population.)

Today, Turkey is re-emerging increasingly as a moderate, democratic Sunni Islamic state, but one that hankers after power as a regional heavyweight. Over the past decades its principal nemesis in the region has been the Assad regime in Syria. Anyone fighting Assad finds favor with the Turks.

Furthermore, Turkey has a politically significant Kurdish minority who, denied of a country by the British and French in 1919, seek secession from Turkey. Unfortunately, many of the Sunni Syrian rebels are Kurds who enjoy close relations with troublesome Kurdish separatist organizations within Turkey. Therefore, Turkey's President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, likely sees the current war between ISIL and Kurds in a similar light to the manner in which Stalin viewed the German slaughter of the Polish elite in WWII.

In the winter of 1944/5, Polish freedom fighters, expecting strong support from Russians advancing from the east, rose up in Warsaw against the brutal German occupying force. However, with an eye towards weakening Polish resistance to postwar Soviet occupation, Stalin was happy to let the retreating Germans kill as many potential capitalist Poles as possible. Therefore, he held his armies back and allowed the Germans to conduct the dirty work.

It is highly likely that, in light of feckless leadership from the United States, Erdogan is tempted to allow ISIL to reduce his Kurdish problem. He knows that, with his own powerful army and the full NATO backing that his membership affords, the likelihood that ISIL can cross the border after taking Kobani (the border town now under siege) is remote. His delays in committing to the anti-ISIL cause may even win him concessions from Obama that allow for potential annexation of Syrian territory if and when the Assad regime falls.

It is tempting for Western observers to view Turkey's reluctance to join the fight as a mark of disloyalty to NATO and as a sign that the alliance is mostly about convenience. This view may be too simplistic.

Obama's embarrassing lack of will and his inability to prevail over Moscow, Syria, and the Ukraine has re-opened a Cold War dynamic that revives the strategic importance of Turkey and its air bases. It is likely, therefore, that eventually the U.S. will, even if only covertly, help Turkey in its struggle to gain influence over Syria, offering, as it will, greater security to Israel from the tightening Iranian Shiite noose. The U.S. is likely prepared to short-change the Kurds to achieve these objectives.

The complexity of the situation should remind us all how difficult it will become to create stability in an ungovernable region. That Saddam Hussein was able to keep the lid on the powder keg for so long is a testament to his brutality and efficiency. It is yet another reminder of the price we pay for offering simplistic solutions to complex problems.

 

John Browne is a Senior Economic Consultant to Euro Pacific Capital. Opinions expressed are those of the writer, and may or may not reflect those held by Euro Pacific Capital, or its CEO, Peter Schiff. 

 

Subscribe to Euro Pacific's Weekly Digest: Receive all commentaries by Peter Schiff, John Browne, and other Euro Pacific commentators delivered to your inbox every Monday! 

 

Order a copy of Peter Schiff's updated illustrated economic parable he co-wrote with his brother Andrew, How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes - Collector's Edition, and save yourself 32%!


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Monday, 20 October 2014 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus - John Browne Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.


John Browne is the Senior Market Strategist for Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. Working from the firmís Boca Raton Office, Mr. Brown is a distinguished former member of Britain's Parliament who served on the Treasury Select Committee, as Chairman of the Conservative Small Business Committee, and as a close associate of then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Among his many notable assignments, John served as a principal advisor to Mrs. Thatcher's government on issues related to the Soviet Union, and was the first to convince Thatcher of the growing stature of then Agriculture Minister Mikhail Gorbachev. As a partial result of Brown's advocacy, Thatcher famously pronounced that Gorbachev was a man the West "could do business with." A graduate of the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Britain's version of West Point and retired British army major, John served as a pilot, parachutist, and communications specialist in the elite Grenadiers of the Royal Guard.

In addition to careers in British politics and the military, John has a significant background, spanning some 37 years, in finance and business. After graduating from the Harvard Business School, John joined the New York firm of Morgan Stanley & Co as an investment banker. He has also worked with such firms as Barclays Bank and Citigroup. During his career he has served on the boards of numerous banks and international corporations, with a special interest in venture capital. He is a frequent guest on CNBC's Kudlow & Co. and the former editor of NewsMax Media's Financial Intelligence Report and Moneynews.com.




 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.