-- Posted Friday, 29 July 2011 | | Disqus

Rick’s Picks

Friday, July 29, 2011

“Phenomenally accurate forecasts” 

Bullion and the broad averages went their separate ways yesterday, each reflecting the failure of our elected leaders to break the deadlock over a debt ceiling. Perhaps we can save Wall Street’s speculators some anxiety by reminding them of what the outcome will be – i.e., a political compromise that will leave in place nearly all of the problems that the debate over America’s fiscal policy was supposed to settle. Given that nothing of substance is coming, we should expect stocks, gold and silver to resume the uptrends they were in before the news media started to confuse the picture with loose speculation about lowered credit ratings, a U.S. default, the curtailment of government services, massive public-sector layoffs and a whole bunch of other things that were never, ever going to happen.

About the only thing that remains uncertain at this point is whether the legislative sausage we should all expect will be extruded literally at the eleventh hour on Monday; over the weekend – most probably on Sunday; or perhaps at some later date by way of an “extension” (Now that’s something Democrats and Republicans can agree on!)  Our hunch is that the deal will be struck Sunday night, and if you want to bet on it you can get pretty good pass-line odds at InTrade.  As of around 8 p.m. EDT Thursday, wagering on the site implied there’s a 7.5 percent chance that Congress will increase the debt ceiling to at least $15.1 trillion before midnight Sunday. 13-to1 sound like a pretty good odds to us, but they seem to be getting juicier by the hour, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see them go to 20-to-1 or higher if there’s still no deal in place when the NYSE shuts down for the weekend today at 4:00 p.m.

How to Be a Hero

Having worked in a newsroom ourselves for seven years, we like the Sunday night ‘surprise’ scenario, since there is usually a dearth of hard news at this time.  In fact, so dire, usually, is the shortage of news on Sunday nights that we can offer the following tip to aspiring politicians: If you’re eager to look like a hero, try delivering your press release to the news desk of a morning newspaper around 4 p.m. EDT Sunday, since the editor will often be desperate and clueless at that time about what stories to feature on the front page. For the same reason, and especially if you live in a small town with a small-town newspaper, you should assiduously avoid doing anything that might land you on the police blotter.

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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indication of future results, so let the buyer beware. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and option trading, and even experts can, and sometimes do, lose their proverbial shirts.  Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2011, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com 

-- Posted Friday, 29 July 2011 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

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