Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | 

Commentary : Gold Stock Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Radio : Silver : Stocks - Main >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
Latest Headlines

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall with Bonds and the Dollar
By: Chris Mullen,

Dr Copper back from the dead- time to buy or blink
By: Sol Palha

Peter Boehringer: Bundesbank still has failed to deliver a gold bar list
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA

These Countries Have Already Begun to Ban Physical Cash
By: Graham Summers

47 years after 1968, Bundesbank STILL fails to deliver a gold bar number list
By: Peter Boehringer

Matt Drudge Visits the Alex Jones Show: Full Interview
By: The Alex Jones Channel

The Real Reason for the Refugee Crisis You Won’t Hear About in the Media
By: Nick Giambruno

The Real Reason Belgium Sold 1,098 Tonnes Of Gold
By: Koos Jansen

Deutsche Bank Looks Primed for a Plunge to $9
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Bundesbank “Reassures” Re. Gold Bullion Reserves as Deutsche Bank Shocks With €6 Billion Loss Warning
By: GoldCore


GoldSeek Web

Crude Oil and the Winds of War

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

-- Posted Monday, 5 March 2012 | | Disqus

After spiking above $110, the price of a barrel of crude oil receded sharply on Friday, suggesting that the winds of war had abated, if perhaps only temporarily. Oils ups and downs seemed to track Obama’s rhetoric concerning Iran over the weekend. It began with the President saying, in an interview with Atlantic Monthly magazine released late in the week, that he would never allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon and that it was no bluff to say that the U.S. was prepared to use force to prevent this. But by Sunday, the President had somewhat changed his tune. In a speech before AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby group, he said there was still time to give negotiations and sanctions time to work. This line landed with a thud at the AIPAC conference, although Obama drew cheers for insisting, in the same speech, that “I do not have a policy of containment; I have a policy to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.” He further noted, to much applause, that “I will not hesitate to use force when it is necessary to defend the United States and its interests.”

We had suggested here a while back that readers tune out the speeches and headlines in order to gauge the odds of war with Iran. If a pre-emptive strike against the country’s nuclear facilities is coming, we reasoned, it seems certain to be reflected by a rise in the price of oil, much as occurred in the months leading up to the U.S invasion of Iraq in March of 2003. Unfortunately, our current forecast for NYMEX April Crude suggests a run-up to at least $120.18 over the near term — about 12% above Sunday night’s levels near $107. Although Iran’s threats to shut down the Strait of Hormuz have presumably helped to push prices above $100, it’s difficult to imagine they could continue rising to as high as $120 without the catalyst of an attack that is thought to be certain.

‘Peaceful Intentions’ Doubted

Meanwhile, few outside of Iran seem to be insisting any longer that the country’s intentions are peaceful. The mullahs flatly rejected the request of U.N. observers to inspect certain nuclear facilities, and Iran itself has already admitted to producing quite a bit more enriched uranium than they could possibly need for medical purposes. These facts do not by themselves justify going to war with Iran, especially since the consequences are unpredictable and could prove fatal to the fragile global economy. Moreover, while Iran’s puny military capability is no threat to the world, or even to Israel, the country’s ability to seriously disrupt oil supplies and global business through terrorism is not in doubt.

Would Iran’s clout increase if it had a nuclear bomb to back up threats such as it has made in the past, particularly against Israel?  Presumably yes, and that is why, no matter what Obama says, we should be prepared for Israel to go it alone. If Israel attacks, they would likely do so before the U.S. elections, since they would not want to have to put their trust in a re-elected Obama. Another arguable incentive for Israel to make war sooner rather than later is that Syria is currently too busy with its own civil war to be of much help to Hezbollah’s war machine in Lebanon. The terrorist organization has a reported 50,000 missiles pointed at Israel, but that in itself gives Israel reason to strike Lebanon with such force that Hezbollah may think twice about starting  something. Egypt is the only other military power that could conceivably do Israel harm, but that’s unthinkable because, in accordance with the treaty that binds Israel and Egypt,  the U.S. would have to come to Israel’s defense.

The situation is certain to grow more tense unless Iran gives in. If they don’t, however, expect crude oil prices – and the price of gold and silver – to rise sharply in the weeks ahead.

Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indication of future results, so let the buyer beware. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and option trading, and even experts can, and sometimes do, lose their proverbial shirts.  Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2011, Rick Ackerman. All Rights

-- Posted Monday, 5 March 2012 | Digg This Article | Source:

comments powered by Disqus


Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 

© 1995 - 2015 Supports

©, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of, its affiliates or advertisers. makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.