The correction in precious metals, now in its 39th month, has been devastating for long-term bulls. At recent lows, gold was trading 42% below its September 2011 Comex high of $1952. As for silver, which peaked at $50, it has plummeted by an astounding 72%. From a technical standpoint, both look like they have further to fall: gold, currently trading around $1200, to exactly $810; and silver, quoted today near $16, to – better sit down for this – $7.86.
As a hard-core deflationist who is extremely bullish on the dollar and bearish on commodities, my gut feeling is that these bear market targets will be achieved. However, from a technical standpoint, a case can be made for a gold rally to as high as $2347, and silver to $55. That would represent a near doubling of gold’s price and a quadrupling of silver’s.
Which will it be? I’ve attempted to handicap the bet in this presentation, which was held on Tuesday, December 16, for the benefit of Rick’s Picks subscribers. There are some precise benchmarks you can use to gauge the odds yourself, based on bullion’s behavior in the days and weeks ahead. For updates in real-time, consider taking a free, two-week trial subscription. This will give you access to a 24/7 chat room that draws veteran traders from around the world, as well as to daily trading “touts,” intraday bulletins and impromptu webinars.