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Can 'Trump Rally Overcome' Severe Headwinds?

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

 -- Published: Wednesday, 16 November 2016 | Print  | Disqus

There are good reasons for the stock market to have celebrated Trumpís victory with a strong rally. For one, a Republican Congress will be able cut taxes on small businesses, particularly the biggest, most job-asphyxiating tax of them all ó Obamacare ó when legislators convene in January. With respect to protectionism, only Trumpís detractors, including the Wall Street Journal op-ed page, seem scared. More likely, in my estimation, is that Trump will rewrite the book on trade deals so that thereís more in them for the U.S. Every country on earth would love to sell goods to America, and Trump is arguably the right guy to strike better deals than weíve typically gotten in the past.

That said, there are equally good reasons for being cautious if stocks continue their ascent. Corporate profits have declined for S&P companies for the last six quarters, and the trend isnít likely to reverse significantly any time soon. Moreover, with interest rates rising and corporate credit ratings in decline, publicly traded companies will have a tougher time borrowing to buy back their own shares. Such buying has been one of the mainstays of the bull market as it has forged steadily higher since March 2009.

Three Charts to Watch

Although Iím optimistic that the rally will continue into 2017, I plan to keep a very close eye on three charts in particular: that of Amazon, a key bellwether for U.S. economy;  the Dow Industrial Average; and the E-Mini S&Ps.  We have targets outstanding for the latter two, respectively, at 19,489 (or alternatively at 19727) and 2240. These are high-confidence numbers that should be expected to work precisely. I also regard them as minimum upside objectives. However, a stall at the targets could mark the bullís last gasp. No matter how bullish we might be at the time, Rickís Picks will be recommending speculative, tightly stopped shorts from those levels.

T-Bonds are a concern as well, since theyíve suffered a bloodbath since July. I view the selloff as corrective, albeit severely so, and have not budged in my view that deflation, rather than inflation, will eventually overwhelm the global economy. Under the circumstances, the rise in interest rates that has corresponded to the selloff in bonds since July would appear to be discounting an upswing, or perhaps merely an uptick, in the U.S. economy. The trends seem heavily overdone by now, and thatís why Rickís Picks continues to hold a long-term tracking position in TLT, an ETF for 30-Year Treasurys. If you donít subscribe, you can access the chat room and all of Rick's trading 'touts' instantly by clicking here for a no-risk, two-week trial subscription.


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