Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain While Stocks, Dollar, and Bonds Fall
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 6 27 2017
By: Ira Epstein

Gold And Silver: Respect The Bar
By: Stewart Thomson

WHEN THIS MASSIVE BUBBLE POPS… What Will Happen To The Precious Metals?
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report

Larger Degree Pullback Coming, But No Market Top Likely YET
By: Avi Gilburt

Brexit One Year Later, in Five Charts
By: Frank Holmes

Zinc One Exercises Option to Acquire and Consolidate the Bongara Zinc-oxide Project and Charlotte Bongara Zinc-oxide Project
By: Zinc One Resources Inc.

Gold and Silver Market Morning: June 27 2017 - Gold recovers very quickly from dubious sale!
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch

Goldman, Citi Turn Positive On Gold – Despite “Mysterious” Flash Crash
By: GoldCore

Asian Metals Market Update: June-27-2017
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Gold vs Silver during Precious-Metals Bull Markets


By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor

 -- Published: Monday, 29 September 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

Below is an excerpt from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 25th September 2014.

It is widely believed that silver outperforms gold during bull markets for these metals, but that's only partially true. It's true that silver tends to achieve a greater percentage gain than gold from bull-market start to bull-market end. It's also the case that silver tends to do better during the final year of a cyclical bull market and during the late stages of the intermediate-term rallies that happen within cyclical bull markets. However, the early stages of gold-silver bull markets tend to be characterised by relative strength in gold. This is a point we've made in the past, including in TSI commentaries earlier this year, but warrants revisiting due to the recent price action.

The point we are trying to make is established by the following long-term chart of the gold/silver ratio. The boxes labeled A, B and C on this chart indicate the first two years of the cyclical precious-metals bull markets of 1971-1974, 1976-1980 and 2001-2011, respectively. Clearly, gold handily outperformed silver during the first two years of each of the last three cyclical precious-metals bull markets that occurred within secular bull markets. Therefore, while silver's recent weakness relative to gold certainly doesn't guarantee that a new cyclical bull market began last December, it is not inconsistent with our view that a new bull market began at that time.



The above chart indicates that this year's continuing upward trend in the gold/silver ratio (continuing weakness in silver relative to gold) is not in conflict with the view that gold commenced a cyclical bull market last December and is working its way through a lengthy basing process. But what about silver's recent break to a new bear-market low in US$ terms? Does this negate the cyclical gold bull market view?

The answer is a qualified no. Silver's breakdown is definitely not, in itself, a reason to believe that the metals are immersed in an extended basing process, but it is also not unprecedented for the early part of a cyclical gold bull market. As evidence we present the following chart showing how gold and silver performed during 2000-2004. Notice that gold made its ultimate bear-market bottom (and commenced a new cyclical bull market) in February of 2001, but silver didn't make its ultimate bear-market bottom until November of 2001.

Silver's performance in November of 2001 is another example of a long-term decline ending soon after an important support level is breached.

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Monday, 29 September 2014 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus


Regular financial market forecasts and analyses are provided at our web site. We aren’t offering a free trial subscription at this time, but free samples of our work (excerpts from our regular commentaries) can be viewed here.

E-mail: Steve Saville



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.