GoldSeek Radio - May 22, 2015 [ARCH CRAWFORD & FABIAN CALVO]
Arch Crawford & Fabian Calvo
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, elucidates listeners with comments on the impending FOMC rate hike, slated for September / December 2015.
He's doubtful that domestic economic conditions are robust enough to sustain a rate hike.
Arch is concerned by the US equities market, which is making 118 year highs on extremely low volume, which he thinks is a sign of manipulation.
The discussion includes Martin Armstrong's market timing model, which seems to coincide with the Hebrew Shemita (Shmita) a seven year cycle of amnesty.
The cycle is nearing another seven year zenith, coinciding with the expected Fed rate hike this Fall.
Could an FOMC rate increase trigger a global economic landslide? Many recent guests certainly think so.
The discussion continues with a review of the trading strategy of the legendary author / former Goldman Sach's trader and now professor, Dr. Nassim Taleb of Fooled by Randomness and Black Swan fame.
Arch discusses his investing style, which bares a striking resemblance to that of Nassim Taleb's.
In 2008, Arch invested $2,500 in puts and earned over $500,000, a two hundred fold return. He invests a small amount in a contrary fashion each month, to reap similar rewards when the crowd is wrong.
Arch worries that a Cyprus-like moment could become a reality on a much larger scale - Europeans, Asians and Americans could suddenly find their account balances adjusted to reflect a new currency, with perhaps a fifty percent reduction in purchasing power.
Fabian Calvo from the NoteHouse.us, is watching US equities market margin levels with a weary eye, each time the crash harbinger overextended in the past a recession followed.
Approximately 1 out of 3 American's cannot find gainful employment or have given up the search for meaningful employment, 93 million souls - impacting at least one person in every household.
Never before in history has this number been so high.
Fabian's work shows that half of all jobs will be be replaced by automation in the next decade, resulting in a Terminator Movie like scenario. Most people will be caught off guard with the boomerang like shift.
The solution: job seekers must retool their skill set in advance of the coming workplace sea change.
The old job paradigm: go to college and accumulate debt has failed; the new paradigm involves online entrepreneurship and vocational training.
By building a solid skill set, entrepreneurial minded people can better prepare for the increasingly challenging / dynamic workplace.
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