-- Published: Sunday, 20 September 2015 | Print | Disqus
Jim Rogers, Vince Bodnar & Bob Hoye
•From the Big Apple, NY, NY, Jim Rogers says the upcoming Fed rate decision tomorrow, Thursday, Sept. 17, could be a game-changing moment. •The current implied probability of the 30-Day Fed Funds Futures indicates only a 22% likelihood of a rate hike at tomorrow's FOMC meeting. • Nevertheless, the financial powerhouse shares Axel Merk's sentiments, Fed Chair Janet Yellen could surprise investors with a token rate hike. • Eventually market forces will overwhelm monetary policies. He remains bullish, especially on the yellow metal in the long-term horizon.•"... Gold will be in a bubble someday, don't worry..." •Cash is king - his analysis indicates that the Greenback will continue to ascend for the time being, eventually culminating in bubble like conditions. •He plans to sell his US dollar position at that point and back up the truck for a Fort Knox size gold shipment. •The crude oil market may be reaching a nadir; a double bottom pattern could be the ideal entry point to boost portfolio exposure. •However, Jim Rogers is less convinced that US equities have reached a frothy bubble like environment.
LTCG Chief Actuary, Vince Bodnar makes his debut on the show.
•From humble beginnings in the 1600's at Lloyd's of London Coffee shop, on Lombard Street, the insurance industry is integral to the modern world.
•Millions of people sleep soundly at night, knowing that their families, homes and autos are secured against unforeseen events and economic calamity.
• Actuaries quantify peace of mind, minimize the overall expense in turn maximizing benefit to the policyholder, society, shareholders and their firm.
•For instance, one predictive models involves credit score - evidently policyholders with high credit scores tend to have fewer traffic related accidents.
•Baysean analysis used by actuaries can vastly reduce the number of false positives, reducing unnecessary and sometimes dangerous procedures / expenses.
•One central concept emerging from the field involves the extended life span expected by millions of retirees.
•Living decades after retirement requires careful planning for not only the policyholder, but the insurance firm.
•Simple changes in lifestyle, such as vegetarian diet increases lifespan by over 7 years in females and almost 10 years in males.
•Chief Bodnar encourages all mathematically inclined listeners to learn more about the actuarial sciences as a profession. •Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors, and the host discuss the big rate decision.
•Policymakers are actually follow the rate trends, reacting to rates, not setting them.
•The economy is based on the beliefs and behaviors of at least 300 million Americans and billions of people worldwide. •Attempting to quantify and then predict the related outcomes on such a complex system is fraught with challenges. •The economy is far too complex to draw broad based conclusions from simple points. •This is the Achilles heal of monetary policy. Although bullish on the gold sector, in order for the gold shares to rebound solidly, the underlying bullion must first stabilize. •Keeping powder in reserve for buying opportunities is advisable.
With a degree in geophysics and a number of fascinating summers in mining exploration, one winter in "the bush" quickly led Bob into the financial markets. This included experience on the trading desk and in the research department of a large investment dealer, which led to institutional stock and bond sales.
Bob's review of financial history provided the forecasting models designed to anticipate significant trend reversals in the sometimes alarming volatility typical of the transition from rampant speculation in tangible assets to fabulous speculation in financial assets.
In anticipation of the latter opportunity, a monthly publication for financial institutions was started in January 1982.
This competently covered the stock market, the yield curve, credit spreads as well as metal and energy prices.
In 1998 the Institutional Advisors website was started as a forum for unique and reliable financial research.
Mr. Vincent Bodnar, also known as Vince, ASA, MAAA, has been the Chief Actuary of Long Term Care Group, Inc. since January 2015. Mr. Bodnar served as Principal and Consulting Actuary at DaVinci Consulting Group, LLC. His background includes more than three decades of experience in life and health insurance products, with a concentration in long term care since 1990. His clients have included insurance companies, banks, reinsurance companies, Blues plans, HMOs, government agencies health care providers and independent marketing organizations. He is recognized as one of the leading long-term care insurance experts in the country, with over 20 years of experience with the product. In fact, he has a stellar reputation as a leader in his field and a visionary with a strong grasp of market trends and opportunities. These collective strengths align ideally with LTCG's strategic focus on helping carriers improve their financial and operational performance through end-to-end administrative solutions. This involves addressing all types of customer and policy requirements-from application processing and underwriting of new business to claims and administration of open and closed blocks. He is also well-versed in premium rate increase filings, long term care morbidity and mortality experience studies, actuarial appraisals of insurance companies and blocks of business as well as the development and implementation of first-principles long term care projection models. His experience includes both stand-alone long-term care products as well as combination products linked to life insurance and annuities. Mr. Bodnar was a Principal with Milliman, Inc. Prior to joining Milliman, he served as Chief Actuary of GE Financial Assurance (now Genworth), where he was responsible for developing strategic alliances. Prior to joining GEFA, he was a consulting actuary for KPMG LLP. He joined Towers Watson as part of its acquisition of DaVinci Consulting Group, which he co-founded in 2007. He has extensive experience in the area of life and long term care combination product development. He served as a Director of GEFA’s insurance entities. He served as a Director of Towers Watson & Co. until January 2015. He serves as Associate, Society of Actuaries. He serves as Chairperson of the 2011 Intercompany Long-Term Care Insurance Conference. He serves as Chairperson of the 2007 Intercompany Long-Term Care Insurance Conference. He served as Chairperson of the Society of Actuaries’ Long Term Care Insurance Section. He serves as Member of American Academy of Actuaries Affiliations. He served as a member of the American Academy of Actuaries State Health Committee and member of the AAA Task Force on Long-Term Care. Mr. Bodnar has published on the topic of long-term care several times (Bio. courtsey of Bloomberg.com).
Jim Rogers is the author of Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Road Trip and Investment Biker: On the Road with Jim Rogers. He is an investor who has been chronicled in Jon Train’s Money Masters of Our Time, Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards, and other books. He has been frequently featured in Time, The Washington Post, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, and most publications dealing with the economy or finance. He has also appeared as a regular commentator and columnist in various media and has been a visiting professor.
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