-- Published: Monday, 4 January 2016 | Print | Disqus
Featured Guests:
Martin Armstrong & Bob Hoye
Summary:
Chris welcomes back Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist of Institutional Advisors, who wishes every listener a Happy New Year.
The economic endgame could be near - central bank policymakers are using every method possible, including negative interest rates and QE.
His models suggest a paper asset crash is inevitable, it is merely a matter of time.
Timing the event is challenging and will represent a sea-change in economics worldwide.
The tipping point could stem from the Junk Bond market, where soaring yields have crushed prices, potentially threatening the higher rated debt market.
Our guest's key takeaway point: a financial maelstrom of epic proportions will crush debt instruments and even shares - hard assets will be essential to economic survival.
Chris welcomes back Martin Armstrong ofArmstrong Economics, the subject of a new riveting documentary The Forecaster (2015).
Watch the theatrical trailer video (Figure 1.1.).
At the heart of his investing methodology are international money flows.
The recent FOMC rate hike could actually be a boon for US equities indexes, as investors direct funds from sluggish international zones.
The discussion includes the threat posed by a cash-less society, an economic ontology gaining momentum domestically and worldwide.
The Forecaster shares his stock market forecast: expect 26,000 - 27,000, with a potential for 40,000 on the Dow Jones Industrials followed by extreme volatility into 2017-2020.
The dialogue returns to the domestic economy - up to 70% of the national debt stems from interest on debt.
Westerners could learn much from the economic miracle in Japan - following WWII, Japan became the 2nd largest economy worldwide.
Since then, China has followed its own path, capturing the title of second largest superpower by building up the infrastructure.
The chat concludes with an interesting discussion on the nature of market forecasting, expert systems and genetic algorithms, useful for improved prognostication.
With a degree in geophysics and a number of fascinating summers in mining exploration, one winter in "the bush" quickly led Bob into the financial markets. This included experience on the trading desk and in the research department of a large investment dealer, which led to institutional stock and bond sales.
Bob's review of financial history provided the forecasting models designed to anticipate significant trend reversals in the sometimes alarming volatility typical of the transition from rampant speculation in tangible assets to fabulous speculation in financial assets.
In anticipation of the latter opportunity, a monthly publication for financial institutions was started in January 1982.
This competently covered the stock market, the yield curve, credit spreads as well as metal and energy prices.
In 1998 the Institutional Advisors website was started as a forum for unique and reliable financial research.
Martin Armstrong was once a US based trillion dollar financial advisor, developed a computer model based on the number pi and other cyclical theories to predict economic turning points with eerie accuracy. In the early 80s he established his financial forecasting and advising company Princeton Economics. His forecasts were in great demand worldwide. As Armstrong's recognition grew, prominent New York bankers invited him to join "the club" to aid them in market manipulation. Martin repeatedly refused. Later that same year (1999) the FBI stormed his offices confiscating his computer model and accusing him of a 3 billion dollar Ponzi scheme. Was it an attempt to silence him and to prevent him from initiating a public discourse on the real Ponzi Scheme of debts that the world has been building up for decades? Armstrong predicts that a sovereign debt crisis will start to unfold on a global level after October 1, 2015 - a major pi turning point that his computer model forecasted many years ago.
Starting at a very young age, Martin Armstrong displayed an entrepreneurial spirit and an analytical ability that were far too complicated for others. As a child he was already collecting coins, and before long he would be trading in gold. As an adult, he started the company Princeton Economics International. Based on a self-designed model, in which the mysterious number Pi plays an intrinsic role, he was able to calculate developments in the world economy. His predictions about stock crises or currency problems were eerily accurate, and he built up a clientele that consisted of powerful players in the global economy.
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