• Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives for 41 consecutive years rejoins the show.
• Our guest advises investors to hold a core position in gold, which could develop a base near current levels.
• A close above $1,370 would indicate a sign of pent-up bullish demand.
• Arch Crawford has closed all long positions in US equities and is holding short-term index puts, in case the current consolidation breaks support.
• The host proposes a 20% correction is a most likely outcome if recent weekly lows are breached.
• If equities hold support in 2018, next year is expected to lead to new record levels and the epic selloff will be delayed until 2020.
• Key reasons for the equities downturn include quantitative tightening (QT) where Fed officials are reversing the decades-long constrictive rate policy.
• Financial history is replete with tales of failed tariffs that rarely bode well in the long-term for countries that adopt the sanctions.
• Such Fiscal policies attract rent-seeking behaviors that typically line the pockets of political allies, doing little to improve overall economic welfare.
• The host proposes that corporate officers prepared for imminent tariffs by accumulating key strategic resources.
• The resulting significant price increases, inadvertently ignited a US equities market advance.
• Now that corporate warehouses are fully stocked with requisite resources inelastic demand is yielding to more elastic conditions.
• Tariffs are de facto inflationary resulting in higher prices across the economic spectrum, to the detriment of working / middle class citizens.
• Two previous failed experiments in US trade tariff policy include, "The Tariff of Abominations of 1825," and the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Trade Tariff Act.
• Officials are advised to proceed cautiously with the current trade tariffs to avoid a crushing global economic contraction.
• Last Thursday news that United States and China increased efforts to resolve lingering trade disputes, according to a Financial Times report.
• The United States and China doubled their efforts to hammer out a reasonable solution to the eight month trade dispute.
• The potential silver lining to the entire fiasco is being spearheaded by the US President and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
• The meeting is slated for later this month at a G-20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
• Evidently China has agreed to remove several demands on the U.S. Government regarding Chinese trade practices.
• Officials in the US have also purportedly extended an olive branch by putting upcoming tariffs on Chinese goods on hold with the proviso to halt the $267 billion on China if the upcoming meeting between the two Presidents arrives at an amicable solution.

Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives for 41 consecutive years rejoins the show with intriguing insights on the recent financial market swoon. Our guest advises investors to hold a core position in gold, which could develop a base near current levels while monitoring a key resistance point on gold of $1,370 as a sign of pent-up bullish demand. Arch Crawford has closed all long positions in US equities and is holding short-term index puts, in case the current consolidation breaks support. The host proposes a 20% correction is a most likely outcome if recent weekly lows are breached. Nevertheless, if equities hold support in 2018, next year is expected to lead to new record levels and the epic selloff will be delayed until 2020, according to Crawford Perspectives. Key reasons for the equities downturn include quantitative tightening (QT) where Fed officials are reversing the decades-long constrictive rate policy while curtailing purchases of toxic debt, resulting in higher real rates. The threat of a global trade war persists; financial history is replete with tales of failed tariffs that rarely bode well in the long-term for countries that adopt the sanctions. Such Fiscal policies attract rent-seeking behavior that typically lines the pockets of political allies without improving overall economic welfare. The host proposes that corporate officers prepared for imminent tariffs by accumulating key strategic resources, resulting in significant price increases, inadvertently igniting a US equities market advance. However, now that corporate warehouses are fully stocked with requisite resources inelastic demand is yielding to more elastic conditions, leading to lower US corporate profit estimates and by proxy, shares prices. Tariffs are de facto inflationary resulting in higher prices across the economic spectrum, to the detriment of working / middle class citizens. For instance, two previous failed experiments in US trade tariff policy include, "The Tariff of Abominations of 1825," that lead to an economic contraction and soaring unemployment as well as the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Trade Tariff Act, which reportedly exacerbated the 29% unemployment rate during the Great Depression (Hoye, 2018). Officials are advised to proceed cautiously with the current trade tariffs to avoid a crushing global economic-contraction, collapsing global trade and widespread unemployment. Last Thursday news that United States and China increased efforts to resolve lingering trade disputes, according to a Financial Times report indicated that both the United States and China doubled their efforts to hammer out a reasonable solution to the eight months old trade dispute between two largest global economies. The potential silver lining to the entire fiasco is being spearheaded by President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, slated to meet later this month at a G-20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, according to one media source. Evidently China has agreed to remove several demands on the U.S. Government regarding Chinese trade practices. Officials in the US have also purportedly extended an olive branch by putting upcoming tariffs on Chinese goods on hold with the proviso to halt the $267 billion on China assuming the upcoming meeting between the two Presidents arrives at an amicable solution.

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